Posted on 08/26/2016 12:46:01 PM PDT by Hojczyk
Is elite overconfidence surfacing again? Donald Trump says that the same experts and pollsters who incorrectly predicted that British voters would vote to stay in the European Union are now dismissing his chances to win the White House.
That’s mostly true. Before the Brexit vote, PredictWise, a website that aggregates data on the likelihood of events, found that there was a 21 percent chance of its being approved. Early on the night of June 23, when Britons voted, it pinned the chances of Brexit’s passing at only 12 percent. Over the last month, PredictWise has placed Trump’s chances of winning at between 19 percent and 30 percent. Other American prediction outlets give Trump only a 15 to 25 percent chance of victory.
Over the next ten weeks, we will no doubt see a domestic version of Project Fear accelerate in the presidential race. As in Britain, the liberal establishment and its media allies will paint a dystopian vision of what America would be like under President Trump. As my readers know, I am no fan of Donald Trump, who is neither a conservative nor a truth-teller. But I am confident that the attack on him will be well over the top, and it could easily backfire.
In Britain, anti-Brexiters’ predictions of economic disaster didn’t persuade a majority of voters because only two regions of the country — London and the southeast — had seen average incomes rise above the levels they were before the 2008 recession. As Larry Elliott, the economics editor of the Guardian noted this week: “After weighing up the pros and cons, plenty of voters didn’t think they were risking all that much.”
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
We’re on our own in this one. The punditry is worthless. It’s really going to be whether the monster vote materializes. I don’t dismiss polls but it bugs me when the media says Trump is behind. We don’t have a running vote over a period of months. He is not behind until votes are cast, and we’ll just need another wave to drown all the rats.
Back off! I never said I wouldn’t work my heart out for Trump and resent your judgmental crap. And don’t tell me who to watch or what to listen to.
She starts out with 217 electoral votes and up to 249 ‘leans Democrat’ more. 270 is not that far away. Doesn’t matter much what the polls say. The Democrats have almost fixed it where the electoral votes are locked in.
Back off?
You’re the one that needed for some reason to tell us that someone saying stuff on the radio “depressed” you. Son of us don’t get mood swings because we don’t look for validation from some media outlet.
If you don’t want a response, then don’t post it to FR.
You don’t own FR. I’ll post where I damn well please.
And I’ll respond.
Thanks for grasping that simple concept.
Don’t bother to respond to me personally, you’re not welcome. Save your crap for someone who cares.
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