Omgosh, Free Republic is becoming an insular echo chamber. There aren’t that many of us. It is WRONG to kick back and assume that Trump has to win.
The media are powerful and influential. More than the media, the mocking from friends and family is highly influential. Many Americans are very busy and only have free time to osmose the most superficial of knowledge, from the most ubiquitous of sources. And some Americans are not big thinkers.
A lot of places, including FR, understand the situation in America. A lot of people know this really is Trump or perish. The Constitution has become a quaint old piece of goat under glass. But we are not alone.
State by state Hillary could get enough electoral votes to win. Why do FReepers scoff only? It is not random doom saying to BE HIGHLY CONCERNED HERE and do what we can to turn things around.
These people mostly KNOW Hillary has health weirdness and has broken numerous laws, BUT THEY ARE STILL GOING TO VOTE FOR HER. Don’t throw shade on ME here; I am a broken glass Trump voter. Just stop being cocky about a Trump win and get serious about the necessary states.
Prepare for the worst; rejoice when you’ve achieved the best.
I generally agree, but it goes both ways. For every poster who is irrationally confident, there seems to be ten who are fashionably cynical. But none of that really matters. If you were to draw up a list of the top 1000 things affecting the outcome of this race, the relative optimism on FR wouldn’t even make honorable mention.
As I see it, this race can go anywhere from a comfortable Hillary win, to a complete landslide for Trump, or anywhere in between. The factors that matter right now are:
On Hillary’s side:
1) Can Hillary get people resigned to a “Hillary presidency”. A lot of people miss the strategy of all of these ludicrously biased (in terms of filtering) media-commissioned polls. It is not to get her supporters confident, or to create despair amongst normal people: it is all designed to get people used to the *idea* of a Hillary presidency. If they can get people on the margins to be resigned to such a disaster, it will make them much more comfortable voting for someone they neither like nor trust.
2) Does Trump look childish in the debates? Fairly self-explanatory. For the marginal voters, this will be a big deal.
3) Are the health issues, and the email scandal, rope-a-dope’s? And, if they are, will Trump fall for them?
4) Can she remain hidden forever? They aren’t hiding her because of health issues (they could be, but that isn’t the likely cause). They are hiding her, because when people see/hear her, they cannot stand her. Her entire strategy is, and always has been, to campaign from behind a screen of media allies and surrogates. If Trump can make any serious inroads in, for example, black communities, he will force her out from behind her screen.
On Trump’s side:
1) Can he look like a president in the debates? If he does, he wins the election, IMHO, and none of the other issues matter. There has been a massive political vacuum that has existed every since Reagan, and Trump can fill it. But only if all of those disaffected Democrats, the largely conservative-leaning independents, and those who have pretty much given up on voting, only if they see someone who looks and sounds like what they view as presidential.
There are a number of other issues which could lead to an unprecendented landslide here (for Trump, assuming he comes across well in the debates): the black/hispanic vote, Republican women and Republican country club types, and young Sanders voters (or the ~20-50% of Sanders voters who aren’t really idealogical, but are concerned and who don’t believe in either party).
But there is little question that Hillary is not in a good position right now. She should be up an easy double-digits at this point. The media is entirely in the tank, she alone has been advertising, and it is the dog days of summer. But she clearly isn’t. Whether it is a moderate (5-7 point lead for her), or an even smaller 1-2 point lead for Trump, is really irrelevant. This should be her high water mark, right now, and it isn’t very high at all.
Trump absolutely needs to do just three things: 1) stay away from potential gotcha issues like her health, or supposed emails lurking on a disk somewhere; 2) counter successfully the “inevitability” tactic; and 3) look like a president a soccer mom would be proud of, in the debates. Do those, and he wins easily.