I generally agree, but it goes both ways. For every poster who is irrationally confident, there seems to be ten who are fashionably cynical. But none of that really matters. If you were to draw up a list of the top 1000 things affecting the outcome of this race, the relative optimism on FR wouldn’t even make honorable mention.
As I see it, this race can go anywhere from a comfortable Hillary win, to a complete landslide for Trump, or anywhere in between. The factors that matter right now are:
On Hillary’s side:
1) Can Hillary get people resigned to a “Hillary presidency”. A lot of people miss the strategy of all of these ludicrously biased (in terms of filtering) media-commissioned polls. It is not to get her supporters confident, or to create despair amongst normal people: it is all designed to get people used to the *idea* of a Hillary presidency. If they can get people on the margins to be resigned to such a disaster, it will make them much more comfortable voting for someone they neither like nor trust.
2) Does Trump look childish in the debates? Fairly self-explanatory. For the marginal voters, this will be a big deal.
3) Are the health issues, and the email scandal, rope-a-dope’s? And, if they are, will Trump fall for them?
4) Can she remain hidden forever? They aren’t hiding her because of health issues (they could be, but that isn’t the likely cause). They are hiding her, because when people see/hear her, they cannot stand her. Her entire strategy is, and always has been, to campaign from behind a screen of media allies and surrogates. If Trump can make any serious inroads in, for example, black communities, he will force her out from behind her screen.
On Trump’s side:
1) Can he look like a president in the debates? If he does, he wins the election, IMHO, and none of the other issues matter. There has been a massive political vacuum that has existed every since Reagan, and Trump can fill it. But only if all of those disaffected Democrats, the largely conservative-leaning independents, and those who have pretty much given up on voting, only if they see someone who looks and sounds like what they view as presidential.
There are a number of other issues which could lead to an unprecendented landslide here (for Trump, assuming he comes across well in the debates): the black/hispanic vote, Republican women and Republican country club types, and young Sanders voters (or the ~20-50% of Sanders voters who aren’t really idealogical, but are concerned and who don’t believe in either party).
But there is little question that Hillary is not in a good position right now. She should be up an easy double-digits at this point. The media is entirely in the tank, she alone has been advertising, and it is the dog days of summer. But she clearly isn’t. Whether it is a moderate (5-7 point lead for her), or an even smaller 1-2 point lead for Trump, is really irrelevant. This should be her high water mark, right now, and it isn’t very high at all.
Trump absolutely needs to do just three things: 1) stay away from potential gotcha issues like her health, or supposed emails lurking on a disk somewhere; 2) counter successfully the “inevitability” tactic; and 3) look like a president a soccer mom would be proud of, in the debates. Do those, and he wins easily.
The likes of Paul Ryan campaigning for Hillary hurts Trump most in places like VA. Those beltway suburb voters that are not Dems are mainline GOPe all the way, IMO. If the GOP wants the WH they need to get on the Trump Train now. Otherwise, it’s going to cost Trump in places like VA and OH.
Very good post. I agree, Trump can win this, especially if he campaigns as he did during the past week. The trip to Louisiana was brilliant, and he gave excellent speeches on the economy, foreign affairs and to the black community, which has been too long ignored by the GOP. What he also has to do is ignore the personal attack responses; hard not to, but like today, there is ZERO to be gained and mucho to be lost from tweeting an attack on Joe Scarborough and Mika B. from Morning Joe; 99 percent of the American people don’t know who they are and could care less. Virginia is probably lost - Trump will win by landslides in the central, west, south and tidewater areas, but this will be more than offset by the NY/Mass dominated mess called Northern Virginia which bears no relation to the rest of the state and is by any definition, a godawful mess.
A very thoughtful post, pleasant to read, lots of great points.
Hillary in my mind at this point should look like a ridiculous joke to anyone. A career criminal with felonies and murders connected. A woman with numerous symptoms of neurological impairment. Regardless of politics, how could anyone think she is fit to run for president? But they do. And they are somehow not ashamed to admit that to pollsters.
She is winning almost every state Obama was. There is not much critical thinking going on, just herd mentality with these Clinton voters. While you say that right now she “looks bad,” she sure doesn’t on paper, like these realclearpolitics maps. I don’t know which body parts could simply fall off her, what murders she really could commit on camera, and still keep these electoral Votes. Some, I’m sure.
It’s still a little bit early but not all that much. They will do ANYTHING to get Hillary in because then they can control the USA. We play honest so we are at a natural disadvantage. We need a righteous, moral populace in order to fight deception and fraud. We don’t have it.
We can do this. But it is going to take work, sneaky work. Getting out IN FRONT of what they try to do to Trump. He’s doing great at this. But we have to convince some of the most sheeplike humans on the planet.