“The poll of 2,858 has a margin of error of 1.83% while a poll of 100,000 has a margin of error of .31%.”
If someone lies to a pollster, it is not reflected in the “margin of error” numbers, it makes them much worse.
Many people lie to pollsters. Additionally, the act of getting a representative sample also is not reflected in the margin of error numbers.
Political bias is also not reflected in statistical error.
So, 100,000 is much better, assuming you know who people are, statistically speaking.
The margin of error should be considered a “minimum ideal error” for best case statistical samples, with the maximum error being some multiple (5x or 10x?) Of the statistical rate to account for many factors that amplify the ideal statistical error rate.
There is no cheap way to poll acurately anymore. A great deal of money and effort must be spent finding demographically relevant statistical samples. That’s hard, and most pollsters are lazy, so you cannot draw too many conclusions from most polls these days. Pollsters simply pull stuff out of their wazoo and call it science.
Yep we sure do and for good reason....: )
Yeah, the “margin of error” term makes me cringe because so many people misunderstand it, including the talking heads on TV. Its probably better not to list it with polls.
I agree. My WWII vet Dad REFUSED to answer ANY poll... even the polls after casting your ballot. He believed in the integrity of the secret ballot. I have been known to alter my age, sex, & sometimes my chosen candidate because I LOVE to see poll failure! I believe others do as well!