Sorry, didn’t mean to nitpick. You’ve obviously done a lot of work and should be congratulated on you effort. Hoping your observations turn out to be good news in the end.
Gallup shows Party ID Nationally as 28-28-42 (R-D-I), if leaners are moved from Ind to Party, you get 43-43-14. ID By state for end on 2015 was added up to get 40.3-42.5-17.1. Pollsters do party ID including leaners as IND or with a party. The numbers I use is based on the way they assign it. in some cases (YouGov, Survey USA) detailed breakouts are used so you can calculate both ways. 20112 is useless because Black turnout was higher for the dems, and anti-Mormon vote was suppressing GOP turnout. 2012 was D+6. A cranky old white woman will have marginal effect on the female turnout for the D’s, and a Presbyterian will be a nothingburger for suppressing turnout for the R’s. Other factors will be involved for sure, but the gender gap is overstated, and Trump getting 1-2-3 % of the black vote is nonsense, and proof that the MSM is fudging polls. Also Trump voter are hanging up on pollsters. We see it here anecdotally at FR, and you hear bout it elsewhere. If the MSM calls me on a robocall, I am a black female lesbian for Stein. If it is a live person I would hang up, except maybe Gravis (OAN) who I would tell the truth to.