I thought a Black Swan Event was something that couldn’t be foreseen?
A black swan is something that is not forseen based on available information and contemporary views of what is and is not possible. Usually you can only understand their inevitability in hindsight.
The collapse of the East bloc in the Revolutions of 1989 was not even on the radar till that Spring. In 1988, the Cold War was perceived as lasting forever.
The September 11th attacks completely defied previous airline hijacking experience. It was the stuff of fiction, and not a real possibility. Up to that point hijackers used the people on the planes to make thier point, not the aircraft itself as a weapon.
An example of a black swan would be if Communist China fragmented into Civil War and Taiwan picked a side and moved troops to the mainland, restoring the Nationalists there.
We don’t perceive that as possible, given what we know about China.
No one could have foreseen that this one would be foreseen, see?
Only for those of us who don’t understand the significance of seven years weeks days etc since “shemitah” (whatever that is)
>>I thought a Black Swan Event was something that couldn’t be foreseen?
By the majority of market participants, yes. But a five-sigma portion will foresee it, and harvest gains from it.
Or just one of the many, many possible events that is so unlikely as to be ignored?
I’ll take a Black Forest ham and Swiss on rye instead. With a bit of Gulden’s.
LOL!
Not that it couldn't be foreseen, but rather that it isn't viewed in retrospect. The same thought occurred to me.
By definition, then, when it occurs it must be defined as a Grey Swan?
You've got to read the book to learn why the title was so chosen.