Ryan is toast. Nehlen’s supporters will cross over to vote for the Democrat. Having Paul Rino is the same thing as having a Democrat anyway.
Nehlen appears to have not had very many supporters based on the results of this primary...even if 100% of them voted Dem it wouldn't put much of a dent in Ryan's support...not sure what you base this on.
You are obviously mathematically challenged. Nehlen got 15% of the vote in a strongly GOP district. If every one of that 15% vote Dim it will make no difference...