USC/L.A. Times Daybreak tracking poll

You are part of the reverse bradley effect, that is clearly evident with Trump. With phone polling Trump always is 2-3% lower than he does with online polling...

Trump easily has a few points higher support than polls are catching... and if you move into certain places, like NY and other traditionally Blue states the reverse bradley effect is even greater.

Totally agree. I Tweeted on Saturday night that Trump won this Khan thing in three ways:

1) he stole the news cycle completely from Cankles.
2) he refocused (in a roundabout way) on Islamic terrorism
3) Khan would prove to be a fraud, which he is today. One news source says they want out of the whole debate. Not surprised. They are exposed.

Can’t argue with the analysis at all.

If it goes this way, you might even expect Trump to win the WOMEN’s vote over PIAPS.

People’s Pundit Daily:

Trump: 45.9 (-0.9)

Clinton: 43.1 (+0.9)

For the record, I am absolutely 110% hard core supporting Trump.

I don’t want to sound like a concern troll but...didn’t we say this to ourselves over and over in 2012? We kept telling ourselves the polls were skewed and biased then Election Night 2012 they may have been a little biased but in the end Obama unfortunately won.

I have no doubt Trump is leading in this particular poll and it actually seems to be one of the more scientific, unbiased polls. However there are quite a number of other polls both national and state by state that show Hillary ahead. I guess my point is that I’m already starting to see the same denial(s) about the polls now that I saw so much of in 2012.

Now the good news is that 1.) Trump has and will fight unlike most any other gop-e would’ve as witnessed in the most recent attempted scandal of the Muslim soldier’s father. I trust Trump’s instincts and game plan unlike again most gop-e candidates in years past. 2.) Unlike past years there should be enough time since the conventions were so early this year to plan/correct/adjust to the dems and their media allies. 3.) Also don’t forget the Wikileaks scandal.

So I’m not saying we should feel depressed but I just don’t want to repeat the same mistakes from 2008 and especially 2012 when we acted believing the country wouldn’t re-elect Obama. It’s obvious they did and by extension would elect Hillary so we have to accept that reality and not assume the country wouldn’t vote for her just because and plan accordingly so that she isn’t really elected.

“and plan accordingly so that she isn’t really elected.”

Sorry should’ve said “act” accordingly.

Thanks!!!

Yes, understand, I am not saying that the polls are wrong... well some of them clearly are, like the one out of PA last week claiming Hillary up 9... even local PA dems don’t believe that one for one second.

The difference this time, is the majority of polls are not showing major leads for clinton, but the ones that do show her up get a lot more press.... There are patterns that are emerging that were not there in 12 or 08.

When the majority of polls say one thing, and and a few say something else... and those few get the headlines, you have something else going on. In 12 and 08... the majority showed Barry up... the minority showed otherwise.... that’s not the case this cycle at all.

The majority show a race basically a tie at this point, or a slight advantage to Trump. Particularly in MUST WIN states for the Dems. FL/OH/PA etc.. even VA polling is starting to show Trump slightly ahead.

This is something different from 12 and 08, where you had to convince yourself polling was off to think it was a race...

This isn’t 08/12... nothing about even the pollign is similar... There are also some other things about polling known this time that are generally ignored.. For example the reverse bradley effect that Trump has... and yes it is well documented at this point... Trump does a few percentage points better consistently when polling is online vs phone polling.... Supposition, Trump has more support that folks are willing to admit to, because it is socially unacceptable in some circles to admit you support him... (reverse bradley effect). This isn’t made up, this has been consistent throughout the campaign and race.

Right now, I believe that any poll, any poll, unless it is a particular state poll that tends to heavily swing D or R, that shows this race as anything more than a few points either way on paper is flat out laughable. Now that’s my opinion, and I could completely eat crow, wouldn’t be the first time... but as I have stated, for the dynamics of a race to shift, something has to cause it... and so far throughout the primary and into the general the momentum has been full on Trump....

He took on 16 opponents, cleared the board and had the nomination locked up before Hillary the anointed one could even take out Sanders... Sanders!!! My God could they have found a weaker bigger joke for her to run against???? And she still could not put him away....

Enthusiasm factor... Trump has far far more enthusiasm, and has from day one than Hillary... He gets folks to show up to vote... and they vote enthusiastically for him. Hillary? Crickets... literally crickets chirping.

Her support is pretty much GENERIC D support... no one is enthusiastic for her... just like Romney or McCain... no one was really enthusiastic for either of them...

I don’t debate the polls show what they show, but I don’t see the fundamentals favoring Hillary at any level. Even lifetime democratic WOMEN I speak to in PA and OH... the folks you would think would be her biggest supporters, I am hard pressed to find anyone that likes her, let alone is excited to vote for her... I am sure most loyalist will show up and pull the lever.. but that’s not going to win you an election.

08 sadly, Dems could have run mickey mouse and won, and some would argue they did... 12... well 12 was IMHO completely ineptitude by the GOP on so many levels... I don’t see D’s getting a 3rd in a row... the last time it happed was 1988 and the economy was booming... a far far cry from the anemic economy that Obama has presided over.

I am not saying polls aren’t saying what polls say, but I am saying, that when you dig into the internals of these polls showing Hillary with any sort of sizeable lead, you find what appears to be flagrant manipulation.. when you find ones that lack the big obvious manipulations you see a race in a virtual tie to a slight Trump lead at the moment.... ANd that’s where things are different than just “the polls are lying”.. because not all polls are showing these things.... the MAJORITY don’t show these things.. but the ones that do show them... tend to get the press...

Finally Trump is the first R in a long long long time, to just not be afraid to fight.... an alpha male in a dangerous world who isn’t going to back down???? No way that’s not going to connect at a base core level with a lot of voters.... Trump’s been underestimated by the pundits, politicians and press for over a year, and every time he proves them wrong they just keep doubling down he can’t win...