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NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today
Business Insider ^ | 07/25/2016 | Allan Smith

Posted on 07/25/2016 7:46:45 AM PDT by MaxistheBest

If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.

That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.

In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.

Silver's model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver's model.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; election; natesilver; trump; trumpbump
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To: MaxistheBest

I think Nate’s model is irrelevant when it comes to the Trump equation:-)

Go Trump LANDSLIDE Go!


21 posted on 07/25/2016 8:05:45 AM PDT by Harpotoo
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To: apillar
Accounting for his own bias as well. He gets lots of air time for saying thinsg like this:

22 posted on 07/25/2016 8:06:07 AM PDT by proust (Trump / Pence 2016!)
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To: MaxistheBest

Are they slashing their wrists over at DU yet?


23 posted on 07/25/2016 8:06:59 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Lisbon1940

Whisper it: had the Democrats run anyone who resembled a normal person - even Tim Kaine himself at the top of the ticket - they probably would walk to victory.

But Obama’s ego and the Clintons’ lust for power have hogtied (pun intentional) the DNC. As much as he dislikes the Clintons, they are his only chance to matter beyond Jan 2017, despite the disastrous preceding 8 years.

Obama has never put party first, only himself. While he rails - with less conviction each time - about GOP obstruction the reality is that his own party has abandoned him because he abandoned them. His ego won’t let him share the spotlight and he’s hogged all the admittedly plentiful media bias in DC. When’s the last time we even read the name Pelosi or Reid or Schumer?


24 posted on 07/25/2016 8:07:51 AM PDT by relictele (Principiis obsta & Finem respice - Resist The Beginnings & Consider The Ends.)
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To: MaxistheBest

Nate the moron is still trying to be relevant:

“Nate Silver: ‘Calm down,’ Donald Trump won’t win the GOP nomination”


25 posted on 07/25/2016 8:08:14 AM PDT by CodeToad (Islam should be banned and treated as a criminal enterprise!)
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To: Lisbon1940

The good news is Hillary Clinton is known and won’t change and the mess with the emails will only add to her trevails. She is stuck.


26 posted on 07/25/2016 8:08:40 AM PDT by mancini
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To: mancini

And her rabid base of BLM and BernieBots won’t allow her to triangulate in the typical Clinton fashion.


27 posted on 07/25/2016 8:10:10 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: relictele

> the Clintons’ lust for power have hogtied (pun intentional) the DNC.<

More likely their lust for staying out of jail.


28 posted on 07/25/2016 8:13:19 AM PDT by zeebee
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To: proust
His “polls PLUS” model has H leading. (polls plus sauce.)

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757559058924699648

Nate likes to hedge his bets; that way he can claim he predicted correctly whatever happens. It is his “now cast” computer model that has Trump winning if the election were held right now. Regardless, these are substantial gains for Trump and show momentum. It will be interesting to see who holds the momentum next week after the DNC convention ends. If the DNC fawning over the Democrats for a week doesn't create some momentum for Hillary, we will see full scale panic.

The really scary thing is wondering what diabolical actions that they will try if this happens. They never seem to just roll over and play dead. We could be looking at some really scary stuff if it looks like Hillary is really going to lose. I would put nothing past them, they literally would go full nuclear if that would help. That is why there are many in the military who are very concerned about ill conceived actions in the Middle East timed to affect the election, but it could be much worse than that.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=2016-election#now

29 posted on 07/25/2016 8:25:26 AM PDT by fireman15 (The USA will be toast if the Democrats are able to take the Presidency in 2016)
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To: MaxistheBest

Yes, I know, but it still is a landslide in the making. Trump is positioned well, Clinton’s party is self-destructing. Can’t get any better than that. Well, maybe if they refuse to confirm Clinton and Kaine. Too bad Sander’s gave up.


30 posted on 07/25/2016 8:32:43 AM PDT by Reno89519 (It is very simple, Trump/Pence or Clinton/Kaine. Good riddance Lyn' Ted, we regret ever knowing you)
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To: Dilbert San Diego

The media will do everything they possibly can to contain any dissension at the DNC. They might just end up showing videos from past conventions, just to keep them from reporting what’s going on there.


31 posted on 07/25/2016 8:36:33 AM PDT by Repealthe17thAmendment
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