https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757559058924699648
Posted on 07/25/2016 7:46:45 AM PDT by MaxistheBest
If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.
That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.
In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.
Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.
Silver's model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver's model.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
A 15 point lead, were it true, is a landslide in the making.
Nice news to hear.
And I’ve heard that Trump got a convention bounce in the polls. Though the media haven’t reported the latest polls too much, they show Trump gaining support. And gaining support in key battleground states such as those noted above.
I can’t believe it, but the Democrat convention may be tumultuous, both inside and outside the convention center. Stay tuned. All this uproar could dominate the news cycle, and help keep Hillary from any convention bounce in her polls.
Wow, thank you for your wisdom Mr. Hind-Sight.
Hillary’s email scandal, the Clinton-Lynch meeting, the Orlando attack, BLM shooting police officers, the continual ISIS attacks in Europe, now the DNC leak...
All the stars are aligning to turn people against the Dems this season, I’d be surprised if Trump doesn’t win by at least 10 points in the popular vote.
Unfortunately, the election is held in November.
I think Trump will win.. but wouldn’t put too much credence in Mr. Silver...didn’t predict that Trump wouldn’t even when the nomination? Go Trump!
Nostradamus Nate up to his old tricks again eh?
when=WIN....
Clinton spokesman just said Hillary is the one to take on the rigged system, yes he said it with a straight face
It's not rocket science, but quantifiable models based on polling data have a hard time measuring emotion, feelings, and other intangibles.
“All this uproar could dominate the news cycle, and help keep Hillary from any convention bounce in her polls.”
Bingo!! And the party has only begun. The long knives are out.
“A 15 point lead, were it true, is a landslide in the making.”
That’s not what this is saying...it is saying Trump has a 57.5% chance of winning.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757559058924699648
His “polls PLUS” model has H leading. (polls plus sauce.)
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/757559058924699648
Liberals treat Nate Silver like the voice of God, they most be in pure panic or suicide watch with this announcement!
That’s not a 15 point lead.
He has Hillary winning NY? lol
Is Silver in the DNC email leak?
Trump’s chances of winning are simply the inverse of the chance that election fraud can overturn the legitimate result.
Lol! Polls plus sauce, what is that? Accounting for Democrat voter fraud (ballot box stuffing, the dead vote, illegal aliens, multiple votes, etc)?
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