Posted on 07/23/2016 11:48:27 AM PDT by Jim W N
Art Laffer is a famous economist, one of the brains behind President Ronald Reagan's supply-side tax cuts in 1981. But he was also a political adviser to Reagan and other presidential candidates. Based on history rather than polls or demographics, he insists Donald Trump will win the presidential race—and win easily.
History is an argument not often heard in presidential elections except in one case: the likelihood that after one party holds the White House for eight years, that party probably won't win four more years. The one exception in the past half-century was the election of George H.W. Bush in 1988 after eight years of the Reagan presidency.
But Laffer doesn't rely heavily on that case. Instead, he cites six historical parallels, comparisons, or developments that he says point inescapably to a Trump victory over Hillary Clinton in November.
The first is what Laffer calls "1979-1980: How the Reagan Revolution Began." Reagan "was disrespected and abused by significant segment of the Republican establishment," Laffer notes. "The torrent of anti-Reagan epithets never stopped."
Laffer's conclusion: "In other words, just like today in re Donald Trump, the party's cognoscenti were forecasting a huge Reagan defeat that would carry with it large numbers of House members and senators." But Reagan won in a landslide. "That Reagan saga of 1980 seems a lot like the Trump story today."
The second is the economy. "For Hillary Clinton, the Obama record on the economy will be her biggest negative come November," according to Laffer. "And the very fact that she actually sought out and embraces this legacy speaks volumes about her judgment."
It's a "challenge for the incumbent party to maintain the White House…even when a president's term ends on a high note," Laffer says. But when it ends with a weak economy, it's almost impossible. And the economy in the eighth year of the Obama presidency is indeed weak.
"This Obama economy really isn't a recovery, let alone a strong recovery, as one would expect should have happened following the devastating collapse of the Great Recession," Laffer says. "Why would Hillary Clinton want to run on the Obama record? It's beyond me."
Number three: the mood of the country. There's "a downside to being a Democratic insider and establishment figure today," Laffer says. "When the electorate is unhappy with the direction the country is heading," Hillary Clinton "will be blamed right along with the president."
“Apparently, Laffer isn’t taking into account widespread democrat voter cheating at the polls, which has been a feature of the last two national elections.”
Sorry Jack, no sale! Vote fraud has limitations. A Trump landslide will bury any attempts at vote fraud.
Arthur Laffer established the now famous “Laffer Curve”.
A representation of the relationship between rates of Taxation and the resulting levels of Government revenue.
Laffer is an economist.
But as any real economist knows, what they are actually studying is human nature.
The meat is in the middle, and Trump has captured that part of the curve.
The current demographics and effects of generations of a leftist educational system preclude any landslide. 2016 is very different than 1980. California and multiple other high electoral states that Reagan won are not close to in play. If Trump wins it will not be by a lot.
Remember in 2012 everyone in Tampa was in panic mode over a tropical storm that was headed Tampa way, that storm got a LOT more coverage than the convention! Romney actually made a good speech, but very few people were listening. He was a very nice GOP-e tomato can candidate nonetheless. Absolutely NOTHING like TRUMP!!!!
As much as I’do like to believe Mr Laffer’s proclamation, there’s an army of Democrats programming electronic voting macines in cities across the nation with reinforcements filling out paper ballots to be manually counted when we realize the voting machines have been tampered with.
It’ll be a miracle if Trump wins in November.
I don’t know about this election,
but the next election may be Islamic with Sharia law.
The Keystone State is the keystone to this election
Can you name the last sitting vice president who won the presidency in the next election?
Bush under Reagan who lead the Reagan Revolution. I expect the same for the Trump VP under the Trump Movement, if Trump’s presidency is a good-to-great presidency as Reagan’s was. 2024 is a really big deal for the future of America. One more slip and we are history.
But, unfortunately, demographics have changed markedly in the Demorats' favor in in the past 36 years. I'm not predicting a Trump loss, I just don't think the Reagan example applies much to the present.
Demographics and circumstances change but some things stay the same. The love of life, liberty and free pursuits doesn’t change. A reasonable person will never knowingly vote for his own destruction but can be fooled into doing so while thinking he is voting in his best interest.
Reagan was plain and honest with the American People. We’ve had 28 years of lying politically-correct Leftist jargon. Now we have Trump who again talks plainly with the American People. There is much similarity which is also why 2024 is so important. 2024 cannot be another 1988 or America is toast.
Ah yes, that’s right nearly thirty years ago. Before that I’m pretty sure you’d have to go back to Taft in 1908. Not trying to poo-poo your idea but in practice the VP rarely takes over.
This is that rare time, just like Reagan’s time was.
I think he’s taken that into account.
In the 8th grade I knew Reagan was going to be a great president and he was. Trump has that out of the establishment vibe that Reagan did but none of the values. I wish with all my heart Trump turns into Reagan....not holding my breath nor are they my expectations.
So true, but so many Republicans are too cowardly to challenge this.
Have PA and NY ever voted differently from the other. Both went to Dewey in 1948, for all the good it did. Maybe PA went to GHWB in 1988, with NY with the popular Michael Stanley Dukakis.
Well I think he is on his way. Dr. Dobson has reported recently that Trump has received Jesus and is now a born again Christian. Trump doesn’t have the smoothness that Reagan did, but he has the fire in his belly and that’s what we need.
Excellent, excellent, excellent! Especially about reducing the tax burden as primarily a matter of principle not practicality.
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