This is going to have severe consequences for Erdogan as he will be destabilizing the region even worse. Look for Putin to insert himself in the upcoming situation by igniting a civil war by covert means and then condemning on the national stage Erdogan for being behind ISIS and for crimes against humanity. This will get global condemnation and alienate Turkey from its NATO allies. Then the Russians will likely send a massive force to Turkey to join with the anti-Erdogan forces and wipe Erdogan out. They will then install their own strong man to stabilize the situation.
I think your analysis is sound. After Erdogan starts murdering thousands of Turks, Putin can play the role of good guy by condemning Erdogan for human rights violations and unleashing the Russian dogs and its allies. Erdogan, I think, really messed up by kicking the Russian bear. As others have speculated, I predict a bloody Turkish civil war in the near future.