“For Trump supporters, this is a tempting narrative to believe. But this simply isn’t so. The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans, and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal. That obviously doesn’t mean Democrats always win, but it’s unwise to assume a pollster is biased because its sample included more Democrats than Republicans.”
There aren’t 12% more Dems than Reps.
There are more secret Trump supporters, but are fearful of being ill treated.
It’s dangerous to reweigh polls based on party identification. Reputable pollsters basically let D/R/I fall to where it falls. While I do not think the electorate will be D+12, it’s entirely possible that a D+6 or D+7 result is plausible. That’s where the electorate was when Obama was elected in 2008 and reelected in 2012.
Also keep in mind that polls are snapshots of the electorate. And these snapshots are generally registered voter polls, which generally favor the Democrats by a few points.
The data shows that Hillary! is up between 5-7 points right now. It’s way too early to be panicked about it, however. Not many pollsters have their LV screen tweaked yet.
Ideally, the electorate will shrink to D+1 or Even and Trump will win the election. The tipping point is in the D+2 or D+3 range.
What Huffpolster won’t tell you is that more independents lean toward Republican than Democrat and that my friend is where the rubber meets the road.
9%
But recently, I believe there could have been a 12 point advantage in turnout.
I think Trump is behind, but not by as much as the ABC poll. Maybe by 4 or 5 points, as other polls indicate. It’s a long way to November, and don’t forget that the Brexit polls were way off. Turnout will be the key.