It’s dangerous to reweigh polls based on party identification. Reputable pollsters basically let D/R/I fall to where it falls. While I do not think the electorate will be D+12, it’s entirely possible that a D+6 or D+7 result is plausible. That’s where the electorate was when Obama was elected in 2008 and reelected in 2012.
Also keep in mind that polls are snapshots of the electorate. And these snapshots are generally registered voter polls, which generally favor the Democrats by a few points.
The data shows that Hillary! is up between 5-7 points right now. It’s way too early to be panicked about it, however. Not many pollsters have their LV screen tweaked yet.
Ideally, the electorate will shrink to D+1 or Even and Trump will win the election. The tipping point is in the D+2 or D+3 range.
The problem is that if the Ds have a 20% advantage-—but only 50% turnout they lose. If Rs have a 3-point deficit, but only a 75% turnout they lose. It’s always a factor of registrations PLUS turnout. Wl Cankles get even 95% of Zero’s 2012 turnout? No. George Will said Trump would need 60 m to win. I think be will get closer to 70 m.