Posted on 06/27/2016 8:47:46 AM PDT by Maceman
The conservative blogosphere is lighting up again with accusations of polling bias against Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in his race against Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. However, Trump supporters should avoid giving into this temptation to assume unfavorable results must be biased results. Clinton really is leading Trump, and by nearly 6 percentage points.
The blogospherian argument goes something like this: Clinton is leading Trump by 5 to 7 points in certain polls because the pollsters oversampled or over-weighted Democrats by about 5 to 7 points. If the polls are “corrected” to include fewer Democrats then the race is actually tied, they say.
For instance, one blogger argues that a recent CBS News poll inflated the number of Democrats in the poll, comprised of 28 percent Republicans and 35 percent Democrats. Citing one pollster’s calculation, she thinks party identification in the United States is closer to parity, with 28 percent Republicans and only 29 percent Democrats rather than a seven-point Democratic advantage. She reasons that if you erase the partisan gap that would erase Clinton’s six-point lead over Trump.
For Trump supporters, this is a tempting narrative to believe. But this simply isn’t so. The fact is there just are more Democrats out there than Republicans, and this has largely been the case at least since the New Deal. That obviously doesn’t mean Democrats always win, but it’s unwise to assume a pollster is biased because its sample included more Democrats than Republicans.
(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...
All over.
Oh just stop
Assume trump is behind and needs our help
The answer is get out the vote
Nothing to say?
Significant denunciation of voters' opinions only gets the latter to go dark, but doesn't influence their opinions in the slightest. Basically the MSM's political correctness has poisoned the well as far as public opinion polls are concerned.
Only hostile environment polling - polls of secondary opinions which when properly analyzed reveal real opinions on other issues - can work now. This is vastly expensive, incompatible with phone polling, etc, etc, etc.
This is several orders of magnitude greater than the Bradley Effect.
It is also different from, but related to, systematic bias by the polling industry. Basically the polling industry is a faction of the MSM and political elites in general.
Here all of those factors are working simultaneously.
I’ve been telling people here that Hillary was going to win. I have been, uh, flamed. She is going to cheat to win. The polls do not matter.
Ping 121 ;-)
So, you’re ‘hearing’ that “the enthusiasm for Donald diminishing”.....and I asked you from where....and, your reply was from “all over”.
Okaaaay.....well, amihow, I’m afraid that with that vague answer....your reliability level is now all “over” :- /
The reputable pollsters will allow D/R/I to fluctuate in each cycle. Those that model it on the last election are usually wrong. The electorate obviously shifts a bit from cycle to cycle. The last 3 elections were Even (Bush 2004), D+7 (Obama 2008), D+6 (Obama 2012).
Prognosticators are “all over” - the map.
Demographics people!! You can’t beat them. Throw in a few looney white people and bam!
Do you not also think voter fraud played its part? I do.
That is why it is very important to support organizations that work hard to prevent voter fraud. That is going to be a big issue this time around.
I put forth where and how earlier.
Perhaps you missed.
I read constantly from all different sources. I check the polls a lot. I have graduate courses in statistics and understand polling pretty well. I have a long and varied experience with lots of people from every level of society and am involved with many different ethnic groups. I have been involved in the legal system and have been politically/socially active, even as a lobbyist.
I really do not like boasting because pride preceeds a fall, but I have been an advisor in national elections at times, am highly educated with two graduate degrees, but now retired and slowed way down by age and health and vision issues.
But I care deeply about this country in part because of lots of grand and great grandchildren. So I plod on.
I am not comfortable with the schoolyard nastiness on FR. I now understand why lots of good minds I know do not like to dirty their hands here.
But I can shrug the nasties off pretty well and appreciate the many great participants on FR.
And you nasties know who you are and I am learning.
That goes without being said. Fraud is standard procedure in the dem operations; with gimme gimme gimme the chances of our winning are even slimmer in any given election.
LOL in the early years, and younger age, I was but a babe. Parents seldom spoke of parties. When JFK passed as a country everyone was saddened. First vote was cast for Nixon, after his leaving I became a non party person. Carter in and still an ‘unaffiliated’ to quote G. Will. After Clinton disgrace it was sworn I’d never vote democrat again. Even without my vote, the party still seems to be growing. :*(
Perhaps you missed.
Perhaps Jane missed? Where is it? If you did "put forth where and how", it's no where to be seen on this thread!
But I can shrug the nasties off pretty well and appreciate the many great participants on FR.
And you nasties know who you are and I am learning.
You just read it again plus more. You do not really want to know.
You just read it again plus more. You do not really want to know.
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