Wigfall had been in the Senate for a year when he made his prediction of how the future Morrill vote would go.
2.Second, even if passed in the new Congress, a determined Southern opposition could have modified the bill more to their liking -- or less to their disliking, as the case may be,
The opposition had the votes to pass whatever they wanted.
3.Third, Wigfall was a dedicated Fire Eater most interested in making the case for secession, not working out compromises with Unionists.
That may be true, but there were folks on the other side just as determined not to compromise. And besides, the other side had the votes to pass whatever they wanted.
Speaking of those determined not to compromise, according to the following April 5, 1861 letter to Lincoln from one of his close supporters, Lincoln had told him that he (Lincoln) did not want to call a special session of Congress apparently as Congress might compromise with the South over issues. [Source: Carl Schurz letter to Lincoln found by poster southernsunshine, my emphasis below]:
Some time ago you told me, that you did not want to call an extra-session of Congress for fear of reopening the compromise-agitation. You were undoubtedly right then. But any vigorous act on the part of your Administration, any display of power and courage will remove that danger. If you first reinforce the forts and then call Congress together, the enthusiasm of the masses will be so great and overwhelming, that Congress will be obliged to give you any legislation you may ask for. You will be master of the situation, and supported by the confidence of the people, the government will be stronger than it ever was before. But on the other hand, if an undecided vacillating policy is followed, we shall be beaten in most of the Northern states at the fall-elections, and your administration will be at the mercy of democratic demagoguism--
Schurz had marked his letter "Confidential." So we are getting a peak at one of the confidential "emails" of the time that exposed what Lincoln was thinking.
This reminds me of Lincoln's March 28, 1861 reply to the Special Session of the Senate then in session when they asked him if he had anything of importance to convey to them before they adjourned. Here from the "Congressional Globe" on March 28, 1861, is documentation about the Senate checking with Lincoln and his reply:
Mr. Powell, from the committee appointed to wait on the President of the United States and notify him that unless he has some further communication to make, the Senate is ready to adjourn, reported that the committee had waited on the President, and had been informed by him that he had no further communication to make to the Senate.
That same day, March 28 [Klein, "Days of Defiance", page 358], Lincoln instructed Fox to prepare an order arranging for the things necessary for the Sumter expedition, an expedition that his military advisors and cabinet previously said would result in a shooting war. Lincoln waited until the Senate adjourned (the House had already adjourned) to plan his effort to provoke war. If Lincoln's expedition was simply a peaceful expedition to provide food for Fort Sumter, why not tell the Senate? Besides, until it became clear to the Confederacy in early April that an armed expedition was being prepared by Lincoln, Fort Sumter had been allowed to get food from Charleston.
Somehow a probable war was not important enough inform the Senate and keep them in session? Congress has the constitutional authority to declare war, not the President.
Lincoln kept Congress out of session until July 4. In the interim, he invaded the South, started the blockade, spent money he had no authorization to spend, enrolled troops for longer periods than allowed by law, ignored habeas corpus, jailed newspaper editors and writers opposing his actions. He did all this without having the normal checks and balances that the Congress would provide. He didn't want the Congress interfering with his plans. Jefferson Davis, on the other hand, reconvened his Congress about two weeks after Fort Sumter.
I'm out of pocket for a good while. More later.
Like I said, a newcomer who knew little to nothing about the Senate.
rustbucket: "The opposition had the votes to pass whatever they wanted."
A determined, experienced minority can always wheel, deal and negotiate better terms than would be available otherwise.
rustbucket: "That may be true, but there were folks on the other side just as determined not to compromise.
And besides, the other side had the votes to pass whatever they wanted."
Somebody famous once wrote a book called "The Art of the Deal", which I've not read, but am certain tells us that anyone can negotiate improved terms & conditions, if they'll make the effort and play their cards right.
rustbucket quoting Schurz to Lincoln: "Some time ago you told me, that you did not want to call an extra-session of Congress for fear of reopening the compromise-agitation.
You were undoubtedly right then.
But any vigorous act on the part of your Administration, any display of power and courage will remove that danger...."
The record shows many Republicans urging Lincoln not to compromise basic principles just to appease secessionists.
And the fact is that no compromise agitation ever resulted in favorable responses from secessionists, so such advice was sound.
rustbucket quoting: "...'the committee had waited on the President, and had been informed by him that he had no further communication to make to the Senate'...
rustbucket: "That same day, March 28 [Klein, "Days of Defiance", page 358], Lincoln instructed Fox to prepare an order arranging for the things necessary for the Sumter expedition, an expedition that his military advisors and cabinet previously said would result in a shooting war."
In fact, Lincoln was still hoping to negotiate a peaceful withdrawal from Fort Sumter -- "a fort for a state" was the deal he wanted -- and in the mean time, Major Anderson informed Washington that his food supplies would run out in two more weeks.
So preparations for resupply of Fort Sumter were both necessary and in normal order, not assuming they would lead to war.
In the end, secessionists refused Lincoln's offer of a fort for a state (Virginia), but peaceful resupply of Fort Sumter was still possible, at least in Lincoln's mind.
And if it failed (as it did), then open rebellion would justify Lincoln's use of military forces to defeat it.
rustbucket: "Lincoln waited until the Senate adjourned (the House had already adjourned) to plan his effort to provoke war.
If Lincoln's expedition was simply a peaceful expedition to provide food for Fort Sumter, why not tell the Senate?"
No peaceful resupply mission to US army forts was a matter for Congressional approval.
And by March 28, 1861 it was still entirely possible for successful discussions to produce peaceful results.
It appears that not until Lincoln's April 4 meeting with Virginian John B. Baldwin was his idea of "a fort for a state" abandoned.
Even then it was not certain in Lincoln's mind that resupplying Fort Sumter must necessarily lead to war, and without some agreement, he had no other choice than attempt it.
rustbucket: "Somehow a probable war was not important enough inform the Senate and keep them in session?
Congress has the constitutional authority to declare war, not the President."
A peaceful resupply mission has never required Congressional action.
rustbucket: "Lincoln kept Congress out of session until July 4."
No, Congress does not need a President to call it into session, it can convene whenever it wants.
So Lincoln called Congress back to Washington DC months earlier than it would have convened on its own.
Indeed to have convened Congress before July 1861 would have put it in extreme danger of an expected Confederate assault on Washington, DC.
Lincoln waited until there were enough troops defending Washington to promise Congress safety.
And, as it happened, Congress then fully supported everything Lincoln had done up to that point, including your litany of his allegedly nefarious actions.
rustbucket: "He did all this without having the normal checks and balances that the Congress would provide.
He didn't want the Congress interfering with his plans."
Nonsense.
When it convened in July, Congress did not "check" or "balance" Lincoln, but approved and supported his actions, all of them, and continued to do so throughout the Civil War.