You said: “But of course, “states of origin” is the very crux of the economic argument for secession.”
You can float that idea all you want, but the truth is that the pending direct trade with Europe and the inflow of low tariff goods was the problem for the Northern businesses and the Treasury. “States of origin” were the seceded states.
Simple enough?
No, as always, you just hope to confuse & obfuscate the real issues.
"Direct trade with Europe" was already the case for about 80% of Southern port exports -- they shipped directly to Europe.
But many return ships stopped in such Northern ports as New York to deliver imports and immigrants.
Those would never go to Southern ports, regardless of Confederate tariffs because it would mean first paying two tariffs when imports shipped into Union states and second, providing transportation for immigrants to Northern cities which could employ them.
So, regardless of your Lost Causer fantasies, the "problem" you defined did not exist.
The real problem was loss of Deep South produced cotton reduced tariff revenues in 1861 by 26%.
Fortunately for the Union, Northern economies soon adjusted, adapted and continued to prosper without Confederate raw materials.