Posted on 06/18/2016 2:17:52 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
The only 2 seats I’m terribly worried about are IL and WI, toss in a more likely than not gain in NV, and we’d be looking at -1.
Other seats are at high risk, PA and NH and OH, but I’d bet on their substandard RINOs (who are all worse than Rubio btw) prevailing. If they all go, that’s 50, making FL the difference between a rat majority and a tie. Every seat counts
Other seats are at secondary risk, FL still, AZ, IN. But I think we’ll hold them. Our only other potential gain is CO, it would be sweet to get it.
Beruff won’t betray us on immigration—because he won’t win the general if he were to buy the nomination. He is not the sort of disciplined candidate that we need in order to win a U.S. Senate race in FL.
I don’t think the Commie rat’s will get the majority. At the very least, I’d say a tie it’s a good thing we don’t have to worry about the house.
That's a valid point. As I recall, the primary ended up being between Rubio and two obscure candidates with zero funding. We all had fun poking fun of the FReeper backing that "honorable Dr. Escoffery" guy who was a citizen of four countries. ;-)
Still, zero excuse for the "Tea Party" crowd deciding to throw everyone else under the bus and beat down the door to endorse Rubio the INSTANT he announced. Someone like Daniel Webster should have been the Senate nominee that year. This time around, the ideal choice to replace Rubio would have been someone like Allen West (although there's zero chance of that happening now that he's in TX). We have got to do a better job of recruiting solid, PROVEN conservatives.
I love how Rubio's support for amnesty in his first elected office (as a city councilman or whatever it was) wasn't leaked to the public until AFTER he ran for President. Interesting timing.
Bottom line: these "Tea Party" groups didn't learn their lesson after Martinez, didn't get it after Rubio, and sadly, STILL don't get it. And there are similar gullible conservatives all around the country. Just look at the outpouring of conservative support that "Obama's cousin" in Kansas got for telling them what they wanted to hear (and he was running against a PROVEN across-the-board conservative!)
What are Beruff’s chances of winning a runoff or forcing a primary?
Personally, I’m lukewarm about Rubio. Nothing great, was always better than the alternatives.
The Democrats running against Rubio will likely be forced into a runoff.
Florida got rid of its run-offs long ago.
“What are Beruff’s chances of winning a runoff or forcing a primary?”
I have no idea what you meant to say. Beriff doesn’t have to “for e a primary”; there already is a primary scheduled for September, whether Beruff stays in or not. And as for “winning a runoff,” that’s not possible, because Florida doesn’t have primary runoffs even if the winner doesn’t get to 50%+1.
I didn’t settle on these candidates merely because they were Cubano Conservatives. In the case of 2004, I supported Mel Martinez because the alternative was Bill McCollum, who had blown the open 2000 race that should never have been lost. In 2010, the choice was between Bubbles and the Orange Menace, which was a no-brainer.
For 2016, my earliest preference to take out Bubbles Roofio was Lt. Col. Allan West before he moved to Texas. My next preference was for Rep. Ron DeSantis (presumably Italian-American). With DeSantis’s exit, next up is Carlos Beruff. That in all 3 instances my endorsement fell to a Cubano was purely because they appeared to be the best of the bunch.
Only if the POTUS election is a disaster, a strong win by Shillery with enough coattails is the only way we could lose the House. Obama's margin in 2012 wasn't close to enough.
Recent poll, Rubio 57%, Buerff 5%.
How that Rubio is officially back in and Buerff is clearly the most prominent opponent, I’m sure he’ll do much better than 5% though, 15%-30% is my guess.
My prediction right now is
Rubio 70%
Buerff 20%
Also rans 10%
If the tremendously horrible Alan Grayson is nominated by the rats that would be a gift, it would be nice to not have to worry about FL at all. The democrats are desperate to destroy Grayson. BTW he married his girlfriend that’s running for his House seat, she took the Grayson name.
It seems as if the sole reason why Grayson married his girlfriend before the filing deadline was so that she could file with the Grayson name. She’ll still get trounced in the primary by state senator Darren Soto (who is the only Puerto Rican running in the multi-candidate primary in a seat in which Hispanics will be a near majority of the Democrat primary electorate).
Impy, is your misspelling of Beruff’s surname intentional?
There is a third Republican running, a (second) rich businessman named Wilcox, who will eat into Beruff’s likely vote pool. I would guess that the final result will be Rubio 75, Beruff 12, Wilcox 10, others 3.
No, my misspelling was inadvertent.
Unusual name, one website thinks it’s Bavarian in origin. My guess would have been French. It might be a spelling variant of a more common name.
Rubio is the only one that beats Grayson in the general.
The people you are talking about won’t be on the ballot.
Can’t afford to lose the seat. Rubio sucks, but Grayson is an evil demented monster.
The FL Dem Establishment wants Murphy, not Grayson. Although Grayson is a psycho with great appeal to their moonbat base. Beruff can beat this nutter in the general.
Wilcox dropped out this morning.
I know of another Beruff, also Cuban. The name sounds Russian to me.
“I know of another Beruff, also Cuban. The name sounds Russian to me.”
Castaway from the missile crisis days..?
He left Cuba as a child prior to the Missile Crisis. I think that most 19th century and early 20th century Russian immigrants to Cuba were Jewish, which would not be the case for my acquaintance (or the Senate candidate). But, as Impy posted earlier, the surname appears to be Bavarian, not Russian. https://www.houseofnames.com/beruff-family-crest Most Bavarians are Catholic, as were almost all European immigrants to the Spanish colonies of Cuba and Puerto Rico in the 19th century, so that’s probably what happened.
I wasn’t aware of that. Thank you.
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