Clinton leads Trump by 2 points in NH [Trump 40% Clinton 42% LVs MOE 4.4%]

The Hill ^ | May 18, 2016, 07:21 am | Mark Hensch

[GonzoII]

Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton would squeak past Donald Trump in New Hampshire if the general presidential election happened today, according to a new poll.

Clinton leads Trump, 42 to 40 percent, in the WBUR survey released Wednesday. Six percent would prefer another candidate, while 9 percent do not know or are undecided.

[GonzoII]

[GonzoII]

http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.wbur.org/wordpress/1/files/2016/05/Topline-2016-05-WBUR-NH-General-1.pdf

[heights]

Let me guess? Registered voters....

[boycott]

I really don’t see support for Hillary growing. She is well known and not very popular. Trump still has opportunity to gain.

[Zathras]

Sources in NH say Trump needs to work harder to put NH in play.

[nhwingut]

They did a hypothetical with Romney included:

Clinton 37
Trump 33
Romney 21

[GonzoII]

It seems to be in play now....

[arl295]

All the North Eastern States have turned into battle ground states

This will be an epic election

Usually Democrats are leading by 10-20 points right now

Looks like the American public are onto their scheme

Trump is probably ahead in NH by 10 points, but they can’t say that, they want this to be a horse race so they can sell ads and newspapers

[SamAdams76]

We will see hundreds of these state polls between now and November. Good. I like polls. Donald Trump even hired himself an internal pollster. At this point of campaign, any battleground state poll that has Trump close or tied for the lead is good news. Polls that have Trump ahead are great news. Polls that have Crooked Hillary under 45 per cent is outstanding news.

Also watch that Undecided vote. That is Trump’s to lose.

[Zathras]

I hope so.
My sources on the ground say Republicans and Independents are being scared away from supporting Trump.
Reminds me of the “Reagan is going to start WW3” talk during Carter.

[Angels27]

NH being a solid blue state, Trump being down only 2% is good news. Now can he win the fence sitters over and win NH?

[Hojczyk]

A poll in Massachusetts might be interesting...New Hampshire has turned into a mini Massachusetts

[PJammers]

501 people surveyed. 32% Rep, 28% Dem, 40% Ind.

So 50% of the people surveyed were neither Rep or Dem? Isn’t that a pretty high sample?

[GonzoII]

I hope someone from NH can tell if the poll was weighted fairly or not....

[Logical me]

More crap from The Hill.

[TontoKowalski]

I really don’t see support for Hillary growing. She is well known and not very popular. Trump still has opportunity to gain.

I agree. I just don't see anyone waking up at this point and saying, "Well, I just decided. I'm voting for her."

I've been a Trump man for a long time, but I have to be objective. For many people, the jury is still out on him. Not so for Hillary. People KNOW what she's like.

You've got to think that refinement of message will sway those undecideds to him. The Kelly interview last night was interesting. He didn't back down, but he was measured and friendly.

[TontoKowalski]

I don't know, but it is interesting that Kelly Ayotte is trailing in this poll by the same 2% that he is.

She might want to think about working her butt off for him to save her own skin.

[MMaschin]

This is excellent news for Trump.

It's fair to consider Clinton the incumbent, and Trump the challenger, and according to the 'Incumbent Rule', undecided's will break for the challenger - that would put Trump ahead in a normally safe Democrat state.

If Sanders is the nominee, he may handily win states in the Northeast, but those states are safe Democrat state anyway, Sanders can not win a single swing state. Why? According to a national Gallop poll last year (http://www.gallup.com/poll/183713/socialist-presidential-candidates-least-appealing.aspx), 50% would not vote for a socialist - the least appealing in the list. Only 47% (59% of Dem, 49% Ind, 26% Repub) would consider voting for a socialist, and since the vast majority of those 47% already live in safe Democrat states, that doesn't leave nearly enough voters in the swing states for Sanders to win.

[Biggirl]

Pretty much a tie.

[Parley Baer]

“All the North Eastern States have turned into battle ground states”

I believe your analysis to be correct. Trump is just getting started and the MSM arm of the dimoKKKRAT party has been going full bore.