OK, fine. There are 183 days left before election day.
In general, I’d say the more people hear Hillary, the more turned of they are (which is why Chelsea and Bill are doing stump speeches for her).
And in general, the more people hear Trump speak, the more likely they are to like him (more than the devilish caricature they see on Facebook).
So for him to be close this early is not bad.
This is just the beginning. It’s the part of the tsunami where the water is moving out and things still seem calm. “Registered voters” is a bloc in a poll that is very easy to manipulate.
She'll be using a Dem version of Bob Dole's playbook. Oughta work well.
And she is more likely to run on "Not Trump" and less substance than the other way around.
Trump just got finished with one of the most viscous primary fights in political history where millions was spent to slander him by his own party. The fact that he is only behind by single digits demonstrates that he can easily make up the difference in the next six months.
We know that RV is not LV. Lots of registered voters end up not voting. There are always huge discussions surrounding the methods by which polling groups arrive at their secret sauce for determining how to identify a likely voter and what are the weightings for determining how many democrat, republican, and independent voters to include. Get the formula right and you win fame and fortune. Get the formula wrong and you’ll get paid by one side or the other anyway. It’s a grand shell game.
But we do know that it’s too early for the polls to even matter and especially if they’re having to hype registered voters polls.
Uh-oh.
Either way Trump is in striking distance. He needs to unify the party and depress D turnout. He can start by widely circulating Hillary’s disgraceful defense of a child rapist.
That’s IT?
After having the GOP-e, Clinton, and the entire media machine trying to destroy Trump.
No wonder everyone is going nuts.
What they aren’t showing you is the polls from 2 and 3 months ago, when Clinton led Trump by 15% or more. The gap is closing - the more people see of HRC, the less they like her, and the opposite for Trump. Once the Republicans largely unite (and they will), the gap will be closed or Trump will have a lead.
We’ve been through this before, in 1980. Take the lesser-known Republican who has “extremist” views and put him up against the better-known, more establishment (and, certainly, media-favored) candidate, and you ALWAYS will have a big gap in favor of the latter...at least early on. As time passes, that shifts. Reagan was much further behind than Trump is now, and he performed a magnificent landslide in 1980. I expect no different this time around.