The important goal, the real goal, is to beat Hillary. The odds of that decrease every day that Cruz stays in the race and forces trump to campaign against him. It deletes time, energy, strategy, focus.
I do not know how essential it is to have Cruz’s supporters. If they could take their votes back, I bet at least 1/3 to 1/2 of them likely would. So we are talking about a few million votes.
Of that few million, more than 1/2 of the votes are from Texas and Oklahoma (1.5 million). Trump wins both states easily.
So really Ted has about 1.5 -1.8 million votes spread out among states that are solidly republican.
Cruz brings little to the table in terms of voters. He loses very badly, every county and congressional district in every single swing state. Trump wins those.
What votes can Cruz bring from any state that Trump needs?
I don’t think Cruz voters are a problem for Trump. Most Cruz people see Trump as a worthy second choice, for one. (The never-Trump folks are mostly GOPe and can be ignored).
Secondly, since Trump is leading in popular vote and delegate count, if he wins there is no loss of face for the average Cruz guy to back the convention winner.
Its the reverse case that is the problem. If Cruz wins a contested convention through skillful guerrilla in-fighting, he has the problem that he can’t win in November without the whole-hearted support of Trump supporters, and he isn’t going to get that unless he is seen to have won fair-and-square, and essentially has Trump’s blessing. That isn’t going to be forthcoming in any likely scenario, Trump himself would have to believe that Cruz, with fewer delegates, has beat him fair and square. Fat chance.
So that is Cruz’s challenge if he wants a fight on the convention floor. He has proved that he knows how to manage a fight skillfully. But winning it without alienating the very people whose support he needs, that is a tough hurdle.
I don’t see how he does it. I am a Cruz guy, as you may have gathered, and I don’t see how he threads that needle.
I think Trump has it. Since I like Trump, I don’t think losing to him is a bad thing. I keep figuring the two camps will have it sorted out before the convention. If they don’t, while Cruz is good at in-fighting, Trump has the ultimate “trump” card, which is the personal loyalty his people have for him. Cruz’s supporters support him based on a principle, but it isn’t personal in the way it is for Trump people. That biases it toward Trump. I don’t think Cruz can win.
“1/2 of the votes are from Texas and Oklahoma””1.5 -1.8 million votes spread out among states that are solidly republican.”
I like what you did with the numbers. I never thought about it in those terms. You’re right..he brings nothing to the table as VP. He would be a serious drag in swing states; I know he would hurt Trump’s chances in Florida.