I don’t think Cruz voters are a problem for Trump. Most Cruz people see Trump as a worthy second choice, for one. (The never-Trump folks are mostly GOPe and can be ignored).
Secondly, since Trump is leading in popular vote and delegate count, if he wins there is no loss of face for the average Cruz guy to back the convention winner.
Its the reverse case that is the problem. If Cruz wins a contested convention through skillful guerrilla in-fighting, he has the problem that he can’t win in November without the whole-hearted support of Trump supporters, and he isn’t going to get that unless he is seen to have won fair-and-square, and essentially has Trump’s blessing. That isn’t going to be forthcoming in any likely scenario, Trump himself would have to believe that Cruz, with fewer delegates, has beat him fair and square. Fat chance.
So that is Cruz’s challenge if he wants a fight on the convention floor. He has proved that he knows how to manage a fight skillfully. But winning it without alienating the very people whose support he needs, that is a tough hurdle.
I don’t see how he does it. I am a Cruz guy, as you may have gathered, and I don’t see how he threads that needle.
I think Trump has it. Since I like Trump, I don’t think losing to him is a bad thing. I keep figuring the two camps will have it sorted out before the convention. If they don’t, while Cruz is good at in-fighting, Trump has the ultimate “trump” card, which is the personal loyalty his people have for him. Cruz’s supporters support him based on a principle, but it isn’t personal in the way it is for Trump people. That biases it toward Trump. I don’t think Cruz can win.
I do not consider what Cruz is doing to be skillful guerilla fighting. I see him as a spoiler foil for the GOP. The time has long past for him to leave the race. The dream of a contested convention is only viable when the front-runner lacks the votes. Long ago, I realized four things. (1) Ted is ineligible, (2) Ted lacks the delegate count, (3) Ted can’t win swing states, the (4) GOPe does not want him as POTUS. How will Ted contest a convention that Trump has won?
After Indiana and considering NJ a gimme, it is inconceivable that Trump could lose. Those two states would put him over 1100. With California and all the rest, he should end up 1306-1330. The California delegates are all chosen by the candidates, so there’s no opportunity for Ted to siphon off any of Trump’s delegates.
After Trump wins Indiana’s 50- 57, it will be impossible for him not to reach 1237. There will be no contested convention. I think all the talk about Ted wrangling delegates in states where Ted has lost will never come into play. Everyone is mad about Arizona’s delegates, but they are still 100% bound to Trump on the 1st round. Likewise, the same will be true for Indiana.
Indiana Rules:
13 April 2016: State Committee Meeting. 27 delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 17 bonus delegates) are pre-slated for the primary.
3 May 2016: all 57 of Indiana’s delegates to the RNC are allocated in today’s Indiana Presidential Primary.
27 district delegates are to be allocated based on the primary results in each of the 9 cd’s: each cd is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 3 of that district’s National Convention delegates. 30 (10 base at-large delegates plus 17 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) statewide delegates are to be allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes statewide.
In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the Indiana’s Republican Party, will attend the National Convention as bound delegates by virtue of their position.
“A delegate ... shall on the first ballot at the national convention support the candidate who received the highest number of votes ... if the person is ... a candidate at the convention. If the presidential candidate ... is not on the ballot ... the ... delegates are no longer bound.” [Rules of the Indiana Republican State Committee. Rule 10-2, 10-6, IC 3-8-3-11].