538 just changed his “polls plus” forecast to 69% chance of Trump winning Indiana. Up ‘til today he had Cruz winning “polls plus.”
His “polls only” forecast is 94% Trump winning. AFAIK he’s always had Trump winning “polls only.”
538’s “Can you get Trump to 1237” calculator is a lot easier now.
It starts at 957, but when you click “Follow the Experts” it adds an average of projections for remaining contests, minus outliers. That gets you to 1211! Only 26 more needed.
Here’s the thing: that only includes 17 for PA, and Trump will pick up as many as 42 of the 54 unbound delegates.
That would put Trump at 1253 for the first ballot.
Nate Silver is certainly not a Trump fan, so there is no wishful thinking here.
Joe Dan’s at it again. Another installment of INTELLECTUAL FROGLEGS!
Grab a cup of your favorite beverage and, unless you suffer from ADHD (not likely if you’re on my list), spend an entertaining and enlightening 23 minutes with Sr.Gorman as he corrects the erroneous 411 being dispensed by the MSM about the candidates in the most important election in our lifetimes.
If so inclined, PLEASE SHARE!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzJggIcIJPk