Posted on 04/28/2016 11:19:43 AM PDT by monkapotamus
Media types want you to get your knickers in a twist about Indiana. However, the data suggests that it doesnt matter any more. Rationally speaking, it is probably time to stop writing so much about the Republican race for delegates. Also, a moratorium on brokered-convention articles?
Today I write about the PEC delegate snapshot. It is based on data posted here. All polls are current, including Trump +6% in Indiana (n=3 polls). Based on Tuesdays voting, in which Cruz underperformed polls by a median of 4 percentage points, I will no longer assign a Cruz bonus. Note that Trump overperformed polls by a median of 8 percentage points.
As of today, for recently-unpolled states (NE,WV,OR,WA,MT,NM,SD) I will start using Google Correlate-based estimates. Of those states, Trump is favored in West Virginia (34 delegates) and is near-tied in Oregon and Washington (proportional representation). The rest are Cruz states.
Put through the PEC delegate simulator, the median delegate count is 1333 (interquartile range 1304-1339). The probability of getting to 1237 delegates is 98%:
What if we assume that Trump will lose Indiana? In that case the median drops to 1284 delegates (interquartile range 1278-1287). The probability of getting to 1237 is now 97%...
(Excerpt) Read more at election.princeton.edu ...
Fingers crossed.
http://wane.com/2016/04/28/crowd-for-cruz-rally-less-than-expected/
Trump has “band wagon” now. Cruz supporters are now disappearing because they don’t want to look foolish. Indiana was Cruz’s 14 days ago bu8t it is all Trump now. Bobby Knight is huge for Trump. This country needs Tough!! leaders quick.
LOL... Cruz is never getting out. He is delusional. He will still be claiming victory deep into 2018...
The illegal immigrant riot in Los Angele yesterday will help Trump. Blood all over the faces of innocent white men done by illegals. You can watch the video on Drudge.
My prediction is the GOPe will still try to steal the nomination.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.