Posted on 04/28/2016 11:19:43 AM PDT by monkapotamus
Media types want you to get your knickers in a twist about Indiana. However, the data suggests that it doesn’t matter any more. Rationally speaking, it is probably time to stop writing so much about the Republican race for delegates. Also, a moratorium on “brokered-convention” articles?
Today I write about the PEC delegate snapshot. It is based on data posted here. All polls are current, including Trump +6% in Indiana (n=3 polls). Based on Tuesday’s voting, in which Cruz underperformed polls by a median of 4 percentage points, I will no longer assign a Cruz bonus. Note that Trump overperformed polls by a median of 8 percentage points.
As of today, for recently-unpolled states (NE,WV,OR,WA,MT,NM,SD) I will start using Google Correlate-based estimates. Of those states, Trump is favored in West Virginia (34 delegates) and is near-tied in Oregon and Washington (proportional representation). The rest are Cruz states.
Put through the PEC delegate simulator, the median delegate count is 1333 (interquartile range 1304-1339). The probability of getting to 1237 delegates is 98%:
What if we assume that Trump will lose Indiana? In that case the median drops to 1284 delegates (interquartile range 1278-1287). The probability of getting to 1237 is now 97%...
(Excerpt) Read more at election.princeton.edu ...
Does this mean Bobby Knight won’t have to throw a chair at the Cruz voters?
No, no don’t listen, FOX,CNN, and the rest need eyeballs.
Oh just stop. I want my vote to actually count this time around.
Trump will be the American choice for POTUS in 2016...Cruz is mathematically through and so is Ksick...even if they share the V.P. Cruz chose...
GO.TRUMP.GO!!! ALL THE WAY TO THE OVAL OFFICE!!!
“Does this mean Bobby Knight won’t have to throw a chair at the Cruz voters?”
No. Chair toss inevitable.
Your vote counts. The more massive Trump’s voter and delegate count is, the more likely it is that the DC crowd will actually have to start serving US!
YES IT DOES!!!
Funny how these BS stories are coming out to try to suppress the Trump votes.
YES IT DOES!!!
Funny how these BS stories are coming out to try to suppress the Trump votes.
Bobby Knight says Trump will be one of the 4 greatest Presidents, and reminded everyone Truman was called unpresidential.
Lets be real, Indiana win puts Trump over the top, and Cruz will be forced to GTFO, and then the thousands of negative commercials end, and Fox will have to act nice or they die as a network, we won’t stand for their daily Trump bashing.
Once the Levin’s of the world stop pissing on DJT’s shoes his negatives go down. Trump is more than a nice guy. His family has given over 20 million to St. Judes Childrens hospital, millions to the Vet, helped build the New York Holocaust museum , and hundred of other charitable endeavors
Stuff he did way before he ever ran for office.
Every vote is needed. Every delegate is needed.
You can be sure that if Trump has just barely enough delegates, that the Establishment will try games (like perhaps get Trump delegates to fail to show up). If Trump has so many delegates that games are unlikely to work, they are less likely to try to cheat.
Something like the observation that Democrats seem to always win close races.
Of course it matters. Nail coffin
But, just for fun this is Wang's final paragraph:
Most of the remaining uncertainty comes from district-level races in California. With California polls showing Trump +18% (Google Correlate says Trump +31%), it will take a highly coordinated effort by Cruz and Kasich to pick up many of its 53 districts. They would use geographic information like this Sextant Strategies survey to guide their efforts. At the moment, the likeliest outcome is for Trump to get at least 160 out of 172 delegates in the Golden State.
There aren’t any Cruz supporters left to throw a chair at.
Not that the Cruz voters don’t deserve it.
It means Bobby doesn’t have to call Cruz a “Chickens*** Son of a B****.”
All this over/under performed polls is statistical nonsense mostly created by Cruz.
The polls have errors built in and actual results will vary from the poll. Also, polsters are not using static methods. They will assess actual results from prior polls and adjust their methods as they go.
There is no “performing” in stat sampling.
Oh, it will matter. America likes a winner and that includes Indiana. Trump will win.
I credit only 14 delegates to Trump from Indiana and my delegate count is still 1267. AND I only give Trump 100 delegates in California. The Indiana victory is important in getting Cruz out so we can begin to get ready for the inauguration.
California will not be a Cruz state. Not even close
Ping.
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