Posted on 04/27/2016 8:37:22 AM PDT by Lazamataz
Tuesday night went about as well as possible for Donald Trump.
Two weeks ago, we issued a series of delegate projections that included something called a “path-to-1,237” projection, a set of targets that would allow Trump to clinch a delegate majority without having to rely on uncommitted delegates. With Trump’s terrific results in New York last week and even better ones in the five states that voted on Tuesday, Trump is running a little ahead of that path.
Based on provisional results,1 it looks as though Trump will sweep every pledged delegate in Maryland (as a result of winning every congressional district), Connecticut (as a result of winning every congressional district and getting more than 50 percent of the vote statewide), Pennsylvania (where statewide delegates are awarded winner-take-all) and Delaware (ditto), along with 11 of 19 delegates in Rhode Island (which is highly proportional). Combined with the New York results,2 that gives Trump 200 delegates since we issued the path-to-1,237 projections, five delegates ahead of his original targets.
While the Northeast appeared to be a strong region for Trump, the polls two weeks ago suggested it was a tossup whether he’d get to 50 percent of the vote in Connecticut; instead he won it easily with 58 percent of the vote. It looked as though he’d probably lose a couple of congressional districts in the Washington suburbs in Maryland even if he won the state; instead, he swept all eight districts.
(snip)
What it means for Indiana, which votes next week and awards its delegates winner-take-all (some statewide and some by congressional district), and which the path-to-1,237 projections had Trump winning. As much good work as Trump has done over the past two weeks, a loss in Indiana would mostly undo it.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Hey Silver, Trump is going to easily win the nomination. Your year long connivance spew and wilful ignorance did not work. You like getting it wrong. It’s no wonder the Cruzers like it so much.
Well of course. :-)
Yes. This guy spent the first six months of last year trying ignore Trump and he gave him no chance. As we see he's still getting it wrong.
He'd add up all those ~Yeb! Bush's endorsements splash them on his home page. Silver: look people see how many ~Yeb has that means he's going to win! LoL. A Pied Piper who tells his ignorant audience what they want to hear and what he wants too. That's not very meaningful for someone who casts himself as some "miracle" prognosticator with a crystal ball.
I guess we have plenty of time to get comfortable with a democrat governor, Madame President, democrat senate and house and a USSC lost forever.
but of course, if Cruz wins, none of the above happens...
okay...
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