Posted on 04/27/2016 8:37:22 AM PDT by Lazamataz
Tuesday night went about as well as possible for Donald Trump.
Two weeks ago, we issued a series of delegate projections that included something called a “path-to-1,237” projection, a set of targets that would allow Trump to clinch a delegate majority without having to rely on uncommitted delegates. With Trump’s terrific results in New York last week and even better ones in the five states that voted on Tuesday, Trump is running a little ahead of that path.
Based on provisional results,1 it looks as though Trump will sweep every pledged delegate in Maryland (as a result of winning every congressional district), Connecticut (as a result of winning every congressional district and getting more than 50 percent of the vote statewide), Pennsylvania (where statewide delegates are awarded winner-take-all) and Delaware (ditto), along with 11 of 19 delegates in Rhode Island (which is highly proportional). Combined with the New York results,2 that gives Trump 200 delegates since we issued the path-to-1,237 projections, five delegates ahead of his original targets.
While the Northeast appeared to be a strong region for Trump, the polls two weeks ago suggested it was a tossup whether he’d get to 50 percent of the vote in Connecticut; instead he won it easily with 58 percent of the vote. It looked as though he’d probably lose a couple of congressional districts in the Washington suburbs in Maryland even if he won the state; instead, he swept all eight districts.
(snip)
What it means for Indiana, which votes next week and awards its delegates winner-take-all (some statewide and some by congressional district), and which the path-to-1,237 projections had Trump winning. As much good work as Trump has done over the past two weeks, a loss in Indiana would mostly undo it.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Give it a rest Nate.
Just a little flyover-country love and Trump is in.
Trump needs to grab some unbound delegates as a backup if they can.
Give it a rest, people who say “Give it a rest, Nate.”
This is mostly reporting facts on the ground. The most interesting fact is that Trump is 5 ahead of his target. The only conjecture is (obviously) states that have not voted the primary yet.
The reality is that Trump can still make it without Indiana, but a Cruz loss in Indiana finishes Cruz.
Cruz has BEEN finished.
Cruz is already finished!
Do you think that Cruz can reach HALF the delegates needed to get to the nomination?
Or more appropriately, half of the delegates that Trump gets?
If he gets so lucky.. Where will he get an increase of at least 100% of delegates in Cleveland?
And do you think he can actually be viable in a general election if he colludes his way to this type of victory?
BS.
What is he talking about that the PA Republican primary delegates are winner take all? Only 17 are awarded to the winner of the popular vote. The others were listed with no indication of which candidate they’d support at the convention. PA voters had to do their homework as to which way the delegates in their district are leaning.
Gingrich to GOP establishment: Trump wins, ‘Get over it’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXfuS2-gFsA
I believe that the bandwagon effect is now full-blown, and people don’t want to see the republican party reduced to chaos which only helps Clinton. Trump will win IN handily with over 50 percent, from there all the remaining primaries will fall into his column with him taking 50+ percent in each one.
Cruz is crashing in the polls now. What happens to his momentum after he loses the next 6 contests, often placing 3rd?
He is done.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
If Cruz destroys the Party at the Convention then loses to Hillary, he is finished politically - BUT if he quits, he has a bright future.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
Yes, Cruz is a narcissistic jerk - and exactly why he will likely quit before Cleveland. Narcissists don't often commit suicide.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
I'm going on record as predicting CRUZ QUITS BEFORE CLEVELAND in a magnanimous gesture to save the Party gaining future leverage & goodwill.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
Does narcissistic Cruz at age 45 seem like the kind of man to destroy his career just to stop a man with whom he largely agrees on policy?
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
People say Cruz will stay in to the end out of ambition - but political suicide is not ambitious. Being the guy who "savedthe Party" is.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
Cruz going to Cleveland would be the equivalent of a Kamikaze pilot diving into an enemy ship. Bad for the boat, worse for the pilot.
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) April 15, 2016
Many of the unbound delegates in PA have said they would support the winner in their Congressional district, and Trump won them all.
[Cruz supporter]
I am still projecting 1,300 ish delegates for Trump at the start of the convention.
I like the honesty.
Sure would be sweet if Trump clinched Indiana!
Didn’t notice that. I saw 97% of target- I’ll check that again later. Nate’s agenda is glaring nevertheless.
I mostly buy this argument — I’m as optimistic about Trump’s chances as at any point in the election cycle. (Granted, that isn’t saying that much given that I spent much of last year being highly skeptical of Trump’s chances.)
I meant "finished from even a hope of causing a contested convention". Cruz's been finished from being able to hit 1237 for a long while.
If Trump wins Indiana (hopefully by a large margin), the #NeverTrump movement collapses. Trump will sail on to win California, New Jersey, and enough of the rest to arrive at the convention with well over 1237 delegates.
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