Posted on 04/25/2016 8:46:26 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
Please be specific. You start with 206 (if that). What states, with EV totals, would Cruz win if he ran against Hillary?
Please don't cite national polls, don't talk about Trump, don't talk about Cruz attributes and policies. Please stick to the question asked.
If Romney had had the same Turnout as McCain he would have taken PA.... however, with that said, Cruz won’t get close to Romney’s numbers in PA.
Anyone willing to comment, well ....
Texas can’t be counted twice. Colorado will not vote for Cruz.
The more relevant question is....
Which states do you thing Trump will lose that Romney won?
The reality is Trump put much more of the map into play than Cruz or Kasich or them both combined ever will.
Yes, Cruz might win a southern state in a general election by a wider margin that Trump might, but Trump isn’t going to lose any of those states... but he will put into play states Cruz or Kasich have no shot at, and will win a few of them as well. Cruz will lose a lot of states that Trump will put into play.
The GOP has the first candidate in nearly 3 decades that demonstrable evidence shows is expanding the party, and they are determined to destroy him.. makes absolutely no sense.
“WI … wouldn’t bet the farm on that at all if they have Kasich or Cruz on the ballot”
Reakclear rates Clinton-Cruz a toss-up:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_cruz_vs_clinton-4119.html
In contrast, Clinton has a 10 point lead over a certain real estate mogul from New York:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html
Yup...makes no sense.
Trump is winning states that haven’t been won by a Republican for decades and the party establishment is holding up its nose.
Usually they’d be thrilled with wins like New York but you can’t fix stupid.
This has been asked many times during the primaries.
The answers range from (no replies) to MAYBE Ohio.
You say that as though Trump would need WI to win.. this is the stupidity of this discussion.
Cruz or Kasich will be another election just like the last 6... where the both sides concede 90% of the country before the election even starts, and they battle over 5 or so states and basically whoever has the better GOTV effort wins.. that’s the election you have if you put up Kasich or Cruz.
Trump breaks the map wide open, states will be in play that haven’t been in nearly 30 years... The map is redefined in a huge way.
The Rovesque election plan is stupid, desperation model and it needs to end. Broaden the party and win the damned elections.... stop trying to protect neocon dogma and policies that pad the pockets of big donors and sell out the rest of the nation.
This is why Republicans keep losing elections... put up someone who can win a red state by 15 points, but has little to no appeal outside it.... just stupid.
To win a national election you can’t do that.. it doesn’t work. If your guy can’t appeal across the nation, you won’t win, doesn’t mean your guy is going to win every blue state, but if you start the election with the assumption, that every state that went the other way by 5 or more points is out of play... then you have the wrong candidate! If you can’t put up someone who can attack a 5 point lead and at least win a few of those, you have the wrong candidate.
Its really no more complicated than that.
Cruz at the top of the ticket. Want even hold all the Deep south states.
I met a crazy cruzbot at the Utah convention.
His answer? ALL OF EM.
Cruz supporters are delusional...it was like a Jim Jones convention without the laughs.
The Supreme Court would be saved from becoming 8 communists vs 1 Constitutionalist.
Gotta think realistically here.
See most Cruzers seem to think that the Deep south is Automatic Red put it in the Cruz column we got this one.
Hillary vs Cruz.
I honestly think Georgia will be a battle ground states.
Wrong. Cruz/Kasich topping the ticket will lose OH & FLA & PA & WI.
Both Cruz and Kasich (NAFTA) support and TPP. The unions say its over.
Only Trump has a shot at the union, wage earner supporters. Kasich and Cruz have both proved they cannot be trusted standing up for American jobs.
I didn’t call you stupid for saying Cruz would lose Wisconsin when the objective data says otherwise. Instead, I showed you the objective data. But, being a Trumpeter, you can’t help but respond with name-calling. You say the person with the highest unfavorables ever in history is going to landslide to victory. It’s not debatable because it’s a religious belief.
But he's winning these states in Republican primaries. Can he still win in states like New York when all of the voters vote in November?
Except for the over zealous nut jobs of the Never Trump movement, there isn't a person who voted for Mormon Bishop Romney that wouldn't happily vote for Presbyterian Moderate Republican Trump. The majority of the Never Trump nonsense is the DC insider brigade who will have their apple carts of easy political analyst, and Campaign managers & paid workers who infest the DC swamp.
Trump motivates more white working class to show up and vote and switch from Democrat to Trump Republican.
Hillary is an incredibly bad candidate. She turns off as many woman as she excites, she also turns off a large percentage of male votes, working class male votes. Those voters are up for Trump to grab.
If Romney had won only 3.% more of the white vote or motivated just 5% more white voters to vote, he would have won the presidency. If just 7% more white people voted in 2012, or just 4% of the white vote switched from Obama to Romney he would have won a landslide in the electoral college.
Trump is already motivating white working class voters to switch party allegiance and vote for the first time in a generation. If Trump has a quality VP candidate, he could run away with a General Election. Particularly if Hillary has more legal troubles.
Apply the Reagan model. For a principle constitutional conservative, they're all in play.
Trump's negatives are as bad, and in a number of cases worse, than Hillary's. So at the end of the day it's going to depend on which candidate turns off the fewest voters and which can get more people to hold their noses and vote for him/her.
>Apply the Reagan model. For a principle constitutional conservative, they’re all in play.
Regan won a lot of blue states because he was nationalist. Cruz is a globalist. He won’t even win Florida.
>The warnings about Trump are in some ways a throwback to what was said and written about Ronald Reagan when he ran against Jimmy Carter in 1980.
>Then, the former California governor was portrayed as a fascist and compared to Hitler. He was accused of stoking nationalistic fears, and offering simplistic solutions to big issues. Journalists also pointed to Reagan’s political affiliation with the Democrats for a major part of his life.
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