Replies

I shifted from Cruz to Trump weeks ago, once Cruz no longer had a practical path to a first-ballot nomination. I do not trust the establishment if the convention goes to a second ballot!

However, just for entertainment, a first ballot nomination for Cruz is not mathematically impossible. It’s just not realistic in a world where he is not likely to win the next few primaries.

559 Cruz delegates
674 delegates still out
1233 delegates total

. . .

but

. . .

66 approximately unassigned delegates
173 Rubio delegates
9 Carson delegates
4 delegates for Jeb, who still cries himself to sleep because it’s his turn
1 delegate for Fiorina
1 delegate for Paul
1 delegate for Huckabee

255 total delegates beyond the committed delegates and those still to be determined.

Cruz is not mathematically eliminated. He just needs 74% of the delegates who are not already bound to a candidate still in the race, including those remaining to be assigned, those unassigned, and those assigned to candidates who withdrew. That is a tall order when he’s going to have trouble getting a third of the remaining state delegates, and most of the unassigned delegates hate both Cruz and Trump.

The assumption all along has been that Cruz will win over Trump delegates on a second ballot. How come we never hear Trump winning over some Cruz delegates on a second ballot?

All you need is a few of those Cruz delegates to support a the voter chosen front-runner and it is over.

But, we all know that Trump is going to show up to the convention fully confident he wins. It is the art of the deal!

If it comes down to a convention fight, Cruz is definitely more organized and better prepared to ultimately win after a few rounds.

But, that will surmise Trump coming to the convention probably within 100 delegates of winning and having that huge gain taken away from him.

It also does not take into account GOPe meddling in trying to ensure that neither Trump or Cruz wins.

IMHO, any of these outcomes...even if they do “follow the system,” will be pyrrhic.

Either the Cruz people (if they lost) and particularly the trump people (if they lost) would feel disenfranchised and would be so emotionally invested that they walked away...and that ends up in a Hillary win.

The only path I see, is for Ted Cruz to, perhaps after the May 3rd election, come to an accommodation with trump and unite the party behind Trump.

I am an avid Cruz supporter.

As much as I like him and believe he would be better over all...the facts on the ground are what they are and I am more dedicated to the nation and our republic.

A 3rd Obama term would be absolutely disastrous...and it would leave the GOPe intact.

We need to avoid that...and Cruz can make that happen, and it is what I believe he should do for the sake of the country.

Immigration and the Wall
Ending the Iran deal
Overturning Obama Care and replacing it
Improving our foreign Relations
Absolutely defeating ISIS
Brings Jobs back
His Tax Plan
etc.

We would be well on pour way to turning America around and Cruz can help make all of that happen.

It would also most probably lead to Cruz being president after Trump.

We lose all of that with an ugly, raucous, convention floor fight.

This is why I wrote the following letter to Ted Cruz:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3422900/posts