If it comes down to a convention fight, Cruz is definitely more organized and better prepared to ultimately win after a few rounds.
But, that will surmise Trump coming to the convention probably within 100 delegates of winning and having that huge gain taken away from him.
It also does not take into account GOPe meddling in trying to ensure that neither Trump or Cruz wins.
IMHO, any of these outcomes...even if they do “follow the system,” will be pyrrhic.
Either the Cruz people (if they lost) and particularly the trump people (if they lost) would feel disenfranchised and would be so emotionally invested that they walked away...and that ends up in a Hillary win.
The only path I see, is for Ted Cruz to, perhaps after the May 3rd election, come to an accommodation with trump and unite the party behind Trump.
I am an avid Cruz supporter.
As much as I like him and believe he would be better over all...the facts on the ground are what they are and I am more dedicated to the nation and our republic.
A 3rd Obama term would be absolutely disastrous...and it would leave the GOPe intact.
We need to avoid that...and Cruz can make that happen, and it is what I believe he should do for the sake of the country.
Immigration and the Wall
Ending the Iran deal
Overturning Obama Care and replacing it
Improving our foreign Relations
Absolutely defeating ISIS
Brings Jobs back
His Tax Plan
etc.
We would be well on pour way to turning America around and Cruz can help make all of that happen.
It would also most probably lead to Cruz being president after Trump.
We lose all of that with an ugly, raucous, convention floor fight.
This is why I wrote the following letter to Ted Cruz:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3422900/posts
even if trump has 1237 cruz intends to challenge trump’s delegates at the credentials/grievance committee of the convention.
There are many considerations here. I think and hope that Cruz knows what he is doing. The trick is for him to keep doing the right thing when he sees that numerically he’s close to the nomination. The best outcome for Trump (other than both Kasich and Cruz dropping out) is for Cruz to stay as long as Kasich does.
The Cruz delegates are more likely to protect Trump’s interests on rules votes than the Kasich delegates would be. Trump is better off with as many as possible of the delegates that don’t go to him being Cruz supporters who have been vetted by Cruz. Some Trump supporters don’t want to hear anything negative about their choice, but Trump has not shown much talent for recruiting and screening his delegates. Cruz has been great at that part of the campaign.
As long as Trump and Cruz reach an arrangement after the rules are approved and before the first ballot, Cruz staying in is the best option for conservatives. If they don’t make a deal, then I am worried about the convention outcome. Trump will be first place from the primaries. Cruz could possibly win an honest delegate battle at the convention, if Trump fell short on the first ballot. With the establishment intervening though, I expect a contested convention to go to Kasich. Kasich is completely and totally unacceptable.
The other consideration is that the Trump campaign team has only focused on winning votes. Competing against Cruz is a good chance for Trump to learn about the other considerations in an election campaign. They do not seem to be learning quickly, but Trump has a couple more months to continue benefiting from the lessons before he faces Hillary.