Posted on 04/21/2016 5:33:24 AM PDT by dennisw
But it’s probably not enough as he tries to secure the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination before reaching the GOP convention in Cleveland. The most likely scenario will have Trump getting about 1,185 delegates. Here’s why.
New York marks a crucial geographic segue in the race, as the calendar turns away from the Ted Cruz-friendly interior and into Trump’s mid-Atlantic wheelhouse. With 156 bound delegates at stake next Tuesday, the test for Cruz and John Kasich will be how many they can pick off.
You can start by penciling in 39 delegates for Trump as the likely statewide winner in Delaware, Pennsylvania and Maryland. Exceeding the 50 percent mark in Connecticut would mean another 13 delegates that would otherwise be split among the field.
And Trump can expect to win about half of Rhode Island’s 19 proportionally allotted delegates. The rest will be awarded to the respective winners of each congressional district.
The best delegate-poaching opportunity for Kasich comes in the affluent Maryland suburbs of Washington, DC, where polls show Trump dead last behind Cruz. Winning three or four districts between the Beltway and the Connecticut Gold Coast would be a big success. The best news for Trump opponents is that the single biggest trove of delegates will be the 54 unbound Pennsylvanians elected independently of candidate affiliation or obligation. While many have pledged to support the winner of the state or their district, all would be in play in Cleveland, a wrinkle that complicates Trump’s path.
The Mountain West has been inhospitable terrain. The Pacific Northwest states split their delegates proportionally. And even West Virginia, in the heart of Trump’s Appalachian sweet spot, has a delegate system so complicated that he may come away shortchanged.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
This takes no account of the fact that since Affirmative Action Teddie has been mathematically shut out his money and support will and are drying up. He is now just a guy trying to get Romney another chance to lose and voters are seeing that. Trump cleans up all the way out.
Didn’t know that about Stone. Thanks for the info.
You are welcome. Paul Manafort is Roger Stone’s law partner.
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