Posted on 04/20/2016 10:51:37 AM PDT by usafa92
Donald Trump is close to the 50 percent mark among Connecticut likely Republican primary voters, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich tops Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in the race for second place, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Likely Republican primary voters give Trump 48 percent, with 28 percent for Kasich and 19 percent for Cruz. Only 5 percent are undecided, but 25 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before the April 26 primary. By 59 – 33 percent, Connecticut Republicans want an outsider for president, rather than someone experienced in politics.
Among those who want an outsider 75 percent back Trump. “Connecticut Republicans have gone for outsider candidates such as Linda McMahon and Tom Foley. They continue that trend with Donald Trump,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. “The conventional wisdom that Sen. Cruz is too conservative for Connecticut looks true, as he comes in a distant third in the Republican primary. Kasich clearly is outpacing Cruz for second, but running well behind Trump
(Excerpt) Read more at qu.edu ...
You never give up.
I actually mean that sincerely. No snark intended.
Inconvenient fact for you dead-enders: Trump blew Cruz out in the Bible Belt.
Deal with it.
And the reason Trump won the South is...?
He has none.
Do you suppose he’ll gain with bandwagon voters now ?
Frankly, I doubt Trump would stay more then one term anyway.
It is called being delusional.
And yet your boy Cruz can't beat him. Because 80% of Americans hate Cruz.
Sad.
Speaking of South, how did St. Ted do in FL (didn’t win a . . . SINGLE . . . COUNTY). How did he do in VA? (Hint: didn’t win a SINGLE . . . COUNTY).
Lost big in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and lost in Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana.
Lessee, did I leave out any southern states?
Trump won every county in FL except one, carried every county in VA I think. Trump beat Hillary by 35,000 votes in OH (Cruz wasn’t close), even coming in second. Trump carried every single southern state, plus Missouri. Every one. Plus NV and AZ, traditionally very “Republican” states.
Pretty hard to argue those aren’t GOP in the fall. In fact, if you look at the states Trump won (include OH cause he beat Cankles there), you have a very clear map of a winning GOP electoral college. But you take Cruz’s states? Yes, KS, ID, OK, ND, SD are “solid GOP.” But IA isn’t-—when Dem last three election cycles. Maine isn’t. Wisconsin isn’t. Colorado went for Obama.
In short, a better argument is that aside from TX, most of the states Cruz did well in are Dem states, and he has faltered badly in traditionally GOP state and/or critical swing states.
Why would any Texan do well in the northeast, unless they had a home in Maine?
A big part of the problem is the delegate selection process which over weighs a state's population versus the likelihood they will actually vote for the GOP candidate.
This cycle, there are 2388 delegates to be chosen. Just to pick a random example or two: the District of Columbia gets to pick 19 delegates, North Dakota gets 28. The probability of them actually delivering 3 electoral votes for the eventual GOP nominee is something like 90% for North Dakota and less than 0% for DC.
Every state or territory should start with the number of delegates they would get based on their electoral vote power. There would be a minimum of 3 for every territory except maybe 7 for Puerto Rico which would be its equivalent electoral votes if it were a state.
After that, delegates would be awarded based on the actual number of electoral votes delivered to the GOP candidate for the last four or five election cycles, with a little more weight given to the more recent results.
Bonus delegates would be assigned for GOP governors, U.S. senators, congress people and state legislatures.
Additional bonus delegates would be assigned to those voting in April, May or June and those awarding delegates proportionally rather than winner-take-all.
It really doesn't bother me that under this formula Texas would have more delegates than California despite having lower population. In fact, it is a fair way to encourage California to do something to have a greater voice in the delegate selection process.
Cruz can’t win. NY just mathematically eliminated him. He has no road forward. His ONLY hope is to be anointed by the Party Powers That Be. The people have spoken, and he’s lost - he simply cannot win it outright.
As far as out West, the biggest State is still open - CA. Are you telling me that you believe Cruz will beat Trump in CA?
I feel yer pain.
Iowa gave us Obama and this time they chose Bernie!
Remember 5 coin toss trick for Hillary? That’s the worse state to begin with, they should all go shuck corn.
The disproportionate delegates are with lots of loser picking states with microscopic turnouts.
Today is 4/20 ;-)
Cruz is so far South at this point he won’t be in it for the western primaries. He will be forced out by then.
and the Emerald Triangle Thanks You for that plug...
Ted’s gonna close the deal with his proposed constitutional amendment banning vibrators and/or the “stimulation of one’s own genitals.”
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