Based on what % of the statewide voe Trump gets, here is the delegate count. If he gets only 50% statewide he still gets 80 of 95...
If trump gets 50% overall, he gets 14 delegates. Then the others are by district, 3 each. If he wins the district with 50%, het gets all 3. If he wins with less than 50, say the upper 30s or 40s, he’ll get 2 delegates with the 3rd going to kasich or Cruz. There can be a dozen or more districts where he doesn’t get all 3. He can win a district with 99% and get 3. He can win a district with 51% and he still only gets 23. I doubt very much he will get all 95
That’s roughly my guess.
I think the only thing that needs to be factored in here is what happens when the undecideds go away. I think Trump is at the RCP average using that poll in that scenario, which should have it somewhere in the 53-55% range.
The undecideds were breaking slightly in favor of Trump, but they have the effect of moving the polled number of 49% to 51% when factored in when leaners were pushed with 9% left undecided.
Figure the last 9% breaks the same way, you’re likely in the 54-55% range and Trump ends up with somewhere between 85-90 delegates.
I still have it somewhere between 80-90 based on the MOE. Either way, it’s above the 538 projections.