I’ve been watching the Dem side. My best estimate is they’ll give it to Hillary. I base this on two things: 1. Hillary is still the frontrunner in the bound delegate count. Bernie could catch up but it’ll be close, much closer than on the Rep side, and 2. every time Bernie takes a rhetorical swipe at Hillary, she gasps and clutches her pearls and he backs off. Every time. That tells me that when push comes to shove, the Bern will go away quietly. I don’t think Trump will.
As for the polls, they show that 33% of Trump’s voters will stay home if he’s not the nominee, while 25% of Sander’s voters will do the same. Bottom line: even if both parties have contested conventions, the Rep will emerge much weaker than the Dem.
Have to admit I think you’re right as far as you go, but I know that Bernie’s supporters are really into the election... even to the point of trying to shut down Trump’s rallies. And I also have a feeling the DNC dislikes Bernie (maybe) to the same extent the RNC dislikes Trump. If Hill wins it with super delegates, and coin flips, can’t think Bernie’s base will take it laying down.