Have to admit I think you’re right as far as you go, but I know that Bernie’s supporters are really into the election... even to the point of trying to shut down Trump’s rallies. And I also have a feeling the DNC dislikes Bernie (maybe) to the same extent the RNC dislikes Trump. If Hill wins it with super delegates, and coin flips, can’t think Bernie’s base will take it laying down.
For the Dems, it will come down to three states—OH, FL and VA, all of which Hillary won in a blowout—OH (H+14), FL (H+31), and VA (H+29). Most of Bernie’s supporters are young, meaning they’re new voters. The Dems would love to have them onboard, but all Hillary has to do is hold the states Obama got in 2012 and they win. She can even lose a few, since Obama got 332 electoral votes. My big fear is she’ll pick Bernie as a running mate. If that happens, I don’t see any Rep. retaking the White House.
Meanwhile, we have to retake OH, FL, VA and one other to get to 270. NV will do it, barely. Trump has a path. He won FL, NV and VA and came in second in OH. All four of these states are moderate, swing states, so whoever appeals to that few percent in the middle most convincingly will win them.Trump has a shot at doing that.
I don’t see a path for Cruz. I just don’t. Full disclosure-I’m a Trump supporter, but I’m also a trained analyst. I’ve looked at the electoral map over and over, and I don’t see a path for Cruz. At this point he can’t become the nominee without a contested convention, and I don’t see him coming out of a contested convention and taking OH, FL, VA and NV. He came in third in all four of them, and it won’t take many people in those states who feel disenfranchised by the convention process to abandon him before he has no path to 270.