The question is, why do some assume that all of D. Trump's delegates will desert him after first unsuccessful ballot, but 75-150 won't desert R.Cruz on second ballot to give it to Trump?
Especially if D. Trump gets 30-50% more delegates (support) going in?
the Kasich and Rubio delegates will be in play
Who do you think Rubio’s delegates will go to on the second ballot? He still has more delegates than Kasich and Kasich’s delegates aren’t going to Trump. Plus the much talked about Cruz campaign selection of delegates - who will vote for him on second ballot. It is very simple math.
Mostly because Trump is disliked by many more of the delegates that will be forced to vote for him on the 1st ballot than any other candidate.
Trump has basically run a sleaze operation that has relied on bullying, insults, belittling other candidates, and has pretty much alienated everyone but that 35% or so that keep turning out for him in primaries. Also, the general election poll numbers matter here. Trump gets crushed by Hillary and Sanders in nearly every poll. Cruz at least shows he can be competitive against them in most polls.
In short, the delegates mostly hate Trump. So it is safe to assume on the 2nd or 3rd ballot that will coalesce around Cruz as the most viable alternate.
Yes, these are the pertinent questions.
Cruz has dishonestly moved to seat delegates in states and districts that Trump won. This was the reason for Trump calling the meeting with the RNC (Priebus). To not give the courtesy to a candidate to seat his own delegates that were won is not only repugnant, it is actionable. Note that this is not only Trump but also delegates that support Trump, who have been delisted by Cruz’s actions and are now angrier than hell. Trump hardly needs to interject himself to cause these delegates who have been frozen out to take drastic actions. Note that these snubbed delegates have very large voter groups behind them who will not stand for the actions of Cruz.
There are already in preparation several filings to be taken up by the standing committee that will deny Cruz’ duplicitous attempt to seat delegates that are not his. These filings can only be overcome by Romney’s agents causing a change to rules, and such rule changes would cause an uproar that would threaten to extinguish any power of the party in the general election; ergo, it will not happen.
Furthermore, with regard to reaching the 1237 threshold or taking it to a floor fight, there are 323 unbound delegates of which experienced hands agree that Trump should easily top more than 100 of those by sheer voter pressure alone. Voters are not silent, many of them are in fact delegates in waiting with strong support behind them. They will bind delegates and fellow delegates to Trump.
Cruz is now controlled by Romney and Neil Bush. These scoundrels who have desecrated the Party of Reagan cannot prevail in a floor flight unless they act to change the rules, but again voters and delegates are not silent and not still, they are vociferous and unyielding. The potential damage to the party will be so great that Romney will be forced to stand down.
The above is predicated weakly on a poor showing in New York and California which is quite unrealistic. The stronger condition is Trump easily tops 1237 because of NY, CA, the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and the 323 unbound. Many media analysts are deficient, to say the least in that they compute arithmetic percentages of votes remaining as some sort of probability indicator of achieving 1237, yet they completely ignore the 323 unbound. When the unbound are factored in, Trump needs only a mediocre performance to reach 1237.
And that was before Manafort.
The rationale for the Party of Romney continuing their futile desperation is they have no other choice. There is nothing for them other than to hope and pray that Trump offers a deal which he won’t. He does not need them at all, hence their desperation
Not only do they have no other options (except surrender, abandon the field and face justice) they have no other place to go. And they risk prosecution and exile. They are as a gang of criminals pinned down on all sides, nowhere to go, unwilling yet to surrender. Eventually, they will have to drop their weapons and come out with their hands over their heads.
What are their prosecutable offenses? The offenses easily number more than 50, and involve massive fraud and theft, violation and tampering of election laws, graft, illegal influence peddling, illegal contracts, money laundering, insider trading and engaging in prohibited foreign transactions including covert Central Bank actions. The prosecutable actions will go on for years and years perhaps beyond the terms of Trump’s presidency.
This is why the scoundrels are desperate. They face ruin, prison, and exile. They may not even be able to achieve exile.