"Cruz wins 100% of the vote in the remaining primaries and he still falls short." -- How the Rest of the Delegate Race Could Unfold, 8 posted on 04/06/2016 5:18:17 AM PDT by King of Florida
Posted on 04/06/2016 11:16:58 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
A Monmouth University survey released Wednesday shows Trump taking 52 percent support, followed by Kasich at 25 percent. Ted Cruz has 17 percent.
The April 19 primary in New York will go a long way toward determining whether Trump can reach the 1,237 delegates he needs to win the GOP nomination outright and avoid a contested convention.
At Trump’s current level of support, he’s on pace to take a strong majority of the state’s 95 delegates, and it appears that he may run the board.
“If this result holds in every single congressional district, Trump will walk away with nearly all of New York State’s delegates,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.
A majority of New York Republicans — 57 percent — said Trump’s myriad controversial remarks, from musing about punishing women who get abortions should they be made illegal to encouraging a nuclear arms race in Asia, will have no impact on how they vote in the primary.
Twenty-nine percent said Trump’s controversial remarks make them less likely to support him, while 7 percent said they’re more likely to support Trump because of his comments.
Seventy-two percent of Republicans in New York say that sharing their home state with Trump will have no bearing on whether they support him or not. Fourteen percent said they’re proud to hail from the same state as Trump, while 13 percent said they’re embarrassed.
Kasich is the Republican candidate who does best in a head-to-head match-up against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to pollsters.
If the Ohio governor were the GOP nominee, 80 percent of Republican primary voters said they’d cast a ballot for him over Clinton. Only 70 percent said the same of Trump, and 66 percent of Cruz.
“It is interesting that Kasich would be a stronger nominee in Trump’s home state, but it is purely academic,” said Murray. “There is almost no probability that any Republican would be able to win New York’s electoral votes.”
Kasich has no chance to win the nomination outright, but is staying in the race in hopes of an open convention. He’s argued that he’ll run stronger than Cruz as the anti-Trump alternative in upcoming contests in the northeast.
There is still an opening, however, for Kasich and Cruz to make gains on Trump, the poll found.
Forty percent of New York Republicans said they are unlikely to change their minds from the candidate they currently support, but 34 percent said they’re willing to consider a different candidate. Twelve percent said they’re hardly committed to their candidate at all, and 14 percent are undecided.
The Monmouth survey of 302 likely New York GOP primary voters was conducted between April 3 and April 5 and has 5.6-percentage-point margin of error.
No, like everything else in NY, it's NOT straightforward with how they apportion by CD. These are basically the rules. 1) A candidate gets 50%+ of the vote, they take all 3 delegates. 2) A candidate gets < 50% of the vote, they take two (2) delegates from the CD so long as the 2nd place finisher gets >20% of the vote. 3) If a candidate gets <50% of the vote and the 2nd place finisher is under 20%, the candidate gets all 3 delegates; unless 4) every candidate gets <20% of the vote. Then the 3 delegates go uncommitted. Head spinning yet?
GOP primary voters have always voted for the more conservative candidate for major political offices such as gubernatorial candidates.
If they do their homework, like finding out that DONALD TRUMP donated $64,000+ to Andrew Cuomo, and $138,600 to the NY Dem Party, they will certainly vote for TED CRUZ.
They just need to be informed. Call a NY talk show, or write a letter to the editor.
Go to hell and don’t come back. Sick of your snotty attitude.
You have a super evening.
You too. Take care FRiend!
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