Posted on 04/06/2016 7:48:49 AM PDT by Bratch
I predict that unless Trump gets the majority of delegates on the first ballot, that Cruz will be the nominee because he is playing the long game to win over delegates while Trump’s strategy is to call Ted names.
Trump will do whatever is necessary to make sure he wins on the first ballot. Sometime between the last primary on June 7th and the first day of the convention in Clevland Trump will cut a deal with Rubio, Kasich or Cruz to make sure he has sufficient delegates to win on the first ballot.
If Trump gets to 1237 by June he won’t have to cut a deal with anybody.
I think I would have gone crazy in this election cycle if not for “sundance” whomever he is....I hope he’s a Freeper cause I love ya man^5 and Jim Hoft over at Gateway Pundit...An Insurrection is what we are in. I am 68 years old and I don’t want the Republic to fall in my lifetime but if we don’t stop what we are doing that is what will happen.
I pray that Trump gets to the 1237 Delegates and becomes the nominee. I expect the biggest blow out election in American history as “we the people” take back our government from the powers that be.
Freegards
LEX
Tell that to the loyalists on here-those are the folks loyal to the establishment status quo who are backing Ted Cruz.
Not a bit of difference between them and the loyalists who supported the crown during the revolution.
He has to cut a deal no matter.
Kasich wants the VP slot, and Cruz should be sent back to Canada.
It is either that or they insert their own little puppet.
I have already sent a nasty-o-gram to my congressman warning him what happens if they play that game. Tole him that if that happens-7 to 10 million of us walk.
are the delegates still bound to the people who have suspended their campaigns ?
Trump needs to put his nationalist hat back on. Especially going into the shelled out, illegal and heroin ravaged northeast. That's his strength and that's where the war now is.
It's globalism vs nationalism. Trump can grab this bull by the horns and lead the pack or he can get left on the side.
But, I promise you all, if you hate Trump, you are really gonna hate who rises next.
A year ago the thought of Cruz winning the Republican nomination and then the Presidency seemed like an unobtainable dream. Now, because of Trump, there is a real possibility of the perfect storm whereby the previously anti-Cruz elites are pulled into his camp and propel him to victory.
It is a fascinating election season.
Trump supporters, don’t bother either trashing me or attempting to change my viewpoint on this. It would be as foolish as me trying to change your position.
Nope, he has burned too many bridges. He won't be able to cut a deal with anyone. If he doesn't get 1237, he won't be the nominee.
At this point I believe it still likely Trump can get to 1237 but if not I would urge him to cut a deal with Kasich who has 143 delegates. And I agree with you that Kasich is running hard for VP.
Kasich’s a better choice than cutting a deal with Teddy IMO for two reasons. First with Teddy Trump would have to look over his shoulder everyday to make sure there was not a knife in his back. Second the Democratic party will likely throw up a challenge to Cruz’s eligibility which if done by the opposing party is very serious. It would create unnecessary havoc.
Kasich is a good party foot soldier who will do what he’s told and he will help win Ohio a must win swing state.
Whatever he has to do Trump needs to cut a deal before the convention and make sure he has the delegates to win on the first ballot. I’m sure he knows he does not want to get involved in a floor fight.
So, with all of the resources of the RNC/GOP-e promoting him, Cruz still couldn’t break 50% of the vote?
Did I read that right?
You can euphemistically call it his Raphael Jr’s “long game”... but I am not sure how it is going to play when people start to realize that every Trump delegate from Arizona (where Trump won by a 2 to 1 margin) is actually a Cruz operative. That is going to fly like a lead balloon. Everyone I have spoken with about this outside of Cruz supporters on Free Republic has characterized it as a sneaky, low down, dishonest, trick to completely disenfranchise the will of the voters.
I’ve done my figuring based on all the crazy systems out there in each state and its possible for Trump to get to 1237 if he can claw his way to a majority of the PA delegates by a popular vote win for 17 and a chunk of the 54 trick system district delegates. I’ll project 20 but Trump will have to spend money to get the delegate names to the voters in the districts.
The other April 26th contests Trump wins all 16 Delaware delegates in winner take all format, 32 of Maryland’s 38 with Cruz only taking 2 congressional districts for 6. Connecticut will be a Trump sweep of the winner take all format for 28. Rhode Island is very proportional which means a big split up of the 19 delegates, but I give Trump the lead with 9.
Also pivotal is his ability to dominate all NY congressional districts on April 19th to get all 95 delegates. He has to get over 50 percent in each district as well as statewide for a total sweep of the 95.
A sweep of all of California’s congressional districts June 7th would be great for Trump but I’ve broken it down at Trump 159, Cruz winning four of the 53 districts with 12.
Trump wins all 51 winner take all delegates in New Jersey on June 7th and splits NM with Cruz. I’ll say 12 out of 24 for each but the best either will do is 16 there.
Trump will have to fight Indiana hard on May 3rd and West Virginia as well on May 10th for a chunk of delegates from each state. They may make the difference in reaching 1237.
Keeping Indiana and West Virginia totals out as question marks I see Trump at around 1200 delegates.
Cruz will top out at 825 approximately with some winner take all wins in Nebraska on May 10th and South Dakota and Montana on June 7th.
Cruz will win a 2-1 ratio of delegates over Trump in Washington on May 24th and lead the strictly proportional vote in Oregon’s mail-in vote primary May 17th.
My starting points have Trump currently at 740 and Cruz at 504.
Look I don’t mean to laugh at your lack of political understanding but in politics there is no such thing as a burned bridge. John Kasich is running hard for VP at this very moment. After the last primary on June 7th he will be happy to negotiate his 143 delegates into a VP spot on anybody’s ticket. Trump will likely negotiate with Cruz, Rubio or Kasich if they are interested in making a deal.
I’ll stick my neck out here and say that Cruz is just green enough behind the ears and so full of himself that he may mistakenly think he can go to the convention and steal the nomination from Trump. I think that will be a fatal mistake on his part and I’m fine with it because I’d like to see him gone anyway.
He broke 48 in a three-way.
Super good analysis and rationale. I still think Trump gets to 1237 but as I have said many times come June 7th and he’s still a few short he’s just going to negotiate with somebody prior to the convention for the VP slot and still win on the first ballot. Trump is not stupid enough to walk into a floor fight. And its unnecessary. Personally I hope he cuts a deal with Kasich and lets Teddy hang out to dry. Kasich has about 143 delegates he can swing some or all of them to Trump on the first ballot and we all know Johnny wants the VP slot.
The ones who should worry are those down ticket. If the GOPe put their clown in those of us leaving will not vote for them
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