I’ve done my figuring based on all the crazy systems out there in each state and its possible for Trump to get to 1237 if he can claw his way to a majority of the PA delegates by a popular vote win for 17 and a chunk of the 54 trick system district delegates. I’ll project 20 but Trump will have to spend money to get the delegate names to the voters in the districts.
The other April 26th contests Trump wins all 16 Delaware delegates in winner take all format, 32 of Maryland’s 38 with Cruz only taking 2 congressional districts for 6. Connecticut will be a Trump sweep of the winner take all format for 28. Rhode Island is very proportional which means a big split up of the 19 delegates, but I give Trump the lead with 9.
Also pivotal is his ability to dominate all NY congressional districts on April 19th to get all 95 delegates. He has to get over 50 percent in each district as well as statewide for a total sweep of the 95.
A sweep of all of California’s congressional districts June 7th would be great for Trump but I’ve broken it down at Trump 159, Cruz winning four of the 53 districts with 12.
Trump wins all 51 winner take all delegates in New Jersey on June 7th and splits NM with Cruz. I’ll say 12 out of 24 for each but the best either will do is 16 there.
Trump will have to fight Indiana hard on May 3rd and West Virginia as well on May 10th for a chunk of delegates from each state. They may make the difference in reaching 1237.
Keeping Indiana and West Virginia totals out as question marks I see Trump at around 1200 delegates.
Cruz will top out at 825 approximately with some winner take all wins in Nebraska on May 10th and South Dakota and Montana on June 7th.
Cruz will win a 2-1 ratio of delegates over Trump in Washington on May 24th and lead the strictly proportional vote in Oregon’s mail-in vote primary May 17th.
My starting points have Trump currently at 740 and Cruz at 504.
Super good analysis and rationale. I still think Trump gets to 1237 but as I have said many times come June 7th and he’s still a few short he’s just going to negotiate with somebody prior to the convention for the VP slot and still win on the first ballot. Trump is not stupid enough to walk into a floor fight. And its unnecessary. Personally I hope he cuts a deal with Kasich and lets Teddy hang out to dry. Kasich has about 143 delegates he can swing some or all of them to Trump on the first ballot and we all know Johnny wants the VP slot.
I live in PA and know several of the delegates here, one of them is the chairman of a Trump volunteer support group in my area. Although most of PA delegates go unbound, the local politicians here have been in support of Trump, do I believe if he wins PA he will get the majority of those unbound delegates.
They will not want to risk going against the will of the people because it’s a very politically active state.