“Tell me how Cruz wins New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania. They (rightfully) despise Texans there.”
Cruz wins none of the 3 and it doesn’t matter. NY is winner take all by CD, and Kasich being in could help Cruz by keeping Trump under 50%. Cruz could pick up a few CDs and pick off some delegates, but it’s obviously Trump’s home state, so he could very well take all 95 delegates.
Most of PAs delegates are selected at convention (70 something out of 90 something), and Cruz tends to do very well at these delegate conventions. NJ is winner take all (around 60 delegates), but they don’t vote till June 7.
There is also CT, DE and MD out East. Cruz has a shot to win MD, the other two probably Trump.
But then you have IN, NE, SD, MT, OR, WA, NM and CA. These are all states Cruz has a very good chance of winning, and some of them are winner take all.
When you look at the big picture, it’s very hard to see how Trump now gets to 1237 before the convention without a major momentum shift back in his direction. To accomplish that, he will need to do well in CA for sure and some of those other mountain and Western states. We’ll see how it goes, but it’s a much tougher road for him after tonight.
Indiana I have no idea how to score; NE I could see going for Cruz simply because of the rural low-info voters which resemble Texas. Montana will probably write in Jim Gilmore. ;-)
Oregon probably has less than 50 registered Republicans. (joke).
Washington, ditto.
New Mexico -- Trump on account of Illegal Aliens vs. identifying with TX.
CA -- Trump. Period. Build a Wall wins.