C4G makes the assumption that all Kasich votes would go to Cruz, if Kasich dropped out.
Many said the Jeb supporters would all go to Rubio, but that was proven false as the voters scattered.
C4G’s other alternative — Common Core math — based on how they ‘feel’ about the numbers while ignoring sums and totals.
Kasich is clearly the most liberal GOP candidate.
Cruz supporters believe Cruz is the most conservative.
If Kasich drops out his supporters are likely to go to Trump not Cruz.
If Cruz scandals end up painting Cruz as more liberal than Trump, then Cruz could pick up Kasich support but would lose his existing base to Trump in the process.
There is no win here for Cruz.