I’d like to weigh in here. God knows why but...
Silver is working off the current numbers (whatever you think of them, what else would he use) and based on the current numbers, I wouldn’t accuse him of drug use.
The RCP poll average has her up 11% on Trump.
With her current lead over him, some states that voted for Romney are in play.
Georgia, Obama came fairly close in GA, because of Black turnout, maxed out, and he still couldn’t win. Nunn’s daughter couldn’t win. A rat may get 45% in GA and be miles away from being able to get 50% just like Chuck Djou getting 47% in HI-1 was miles away from 50%. Nunn led in some polls and she got 45%. I don’t see GA falling, no Obama, no reason for as high Black turnout.
AZ , full of Hispanics (no, they don’t love Don, they don’t), dems are waiting and hoping for it to turn, they’ve been waiting, maybe wishful thinking, it’s been disappointing them, but it could be in play with Hillary’s current lead. I’d be curious to know how many points better Obama would have done in 2008 if McCain hadn’t been from AZ.
We’ve already seen Obama win NC in 08, though by a small and fraudulent margin. Obama won nationally by 7 points in 08. Romney’s win was a paltry 2 points, Obama won by 4 nationally in 2012. Indiana shifted back into a more Republican position after 2008 but NC did not, do you think it has now?
If she WERE to win by 11, I’d say she’d likely carry NC and would have a chance at AZ.
I’d be more confident if Cruz is the nominee.
If it’s Trump we better hope he opens her throat and makes America decide it hates her more, as he very well could. But if the election were tomorrow she’d certainly beat him, so I can’t fault Silver’s projection too much.
Basically, I’m saying that Trump starts out with all of Willard’s wins and goes from there. He cannot possibly perform worse than that ringer did.