I have a problem with that one too. How can Trump be ahead of both Cruz and Kasich nationally by sometimes double digits but he can't beat Hillary or Bernie when Cruz and Kasich can? That is not adding up for me.
I will try to make it simple. The polls showing Trump ahead do not include democrats and in some states the polls do not include either democrats or independents depending on whether the state is an open or closed primary.
Let's try it this way. The polls showing Trump losing to Clinton include EVERYONE. That means republicans, democrats and independents, black, white and hispanic and native americans, etc. Get it?
In addition, the experts are estimating that the minority vote will total about 28% of the vote in November. So let's say blacks make up 11% of the voters in 2016 (it was 13% in 2012), which means that Hispanics will make up 17% in 2016. Clinton will receive 95% of the black vote. So you take the 11%, multiply by 95% and Clinton will receive 10.5% and Trump will receive 0.5%. Let's be generous and give Trump 40% of the Hispanic vote. To calculate, multiply 17 times 60% for Clinton. That number is 10.2, so Trump will receive 6.8. Totaling these two voting blocs, this is how it turns out:Clinton is at 20.7% and Trump is at 7.3%. So Trump already starts out 13.4 percent behind Clinton before counting the white vote.
This will sober you up, too. In 1988, H.W. won 59% of the white vote and won in a landslide (he won 40 states). In 2012, Romney won 59% of the white vote and lost. That shows you how much the demographics have changed in one generation. Trump will need to win more than 59% of the white vote to win the election.
In addition, Trump is the most disliked politician in America. He is more disliked than Hillary Clinton. He is disliked more than Cruz and Kasich and anyone else you want to mention. My whole family are Cruz folks and all but one are telling me they will not vote for Trump in November under any circumstances. The way Trump offends by saying Romney is not a Mormon offended an entire state. I could go on, but we all know how Trump offends. I think in the end they will vote for Trump, but at the moment, they are quite alienated and vocal in their disgust for Trump even if it means Hillary gets elected.
If Trump wants to win in November, he is going to have to do a lot of nice talk and win the good graces of lots of voters. After all, one third of republicans currently say the will not vote for Trump in November. Trump needs 95% of republican voters to win and at the moment, he is far below that. We will know better after the convention. Trump will need to unite everyone at the convention. It is hugely important, which means no more threatening tweets.