Now only Donald Trump has a viable path to 1.237 delegates

HERE ON FR | March 23, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

AFTER MARCH 22ND, ONLY DONALD TRUMP
has a viable path to winning the nomination through the Primary Process

Some people are saying that the Utah caucuses were fraudulent.

I do not believe they were. They were caucuses...and Cruz has always had a better ground game in most of the caucus states.

On the other hand, Trump has typically not done as well in Caucus states.

But in the end, Utah will not matter. Here's why:

Even though Trump has lost several primaries with relatively low percentages, overall Trump is still winning big time.

• Kasich won 1 contest
• Rubio won 3 contests
• Cruz has won 10 contests
• Trump has won 20 contests

So, for every "one" of the ten victories Ted likes to talk about stringing together, Trump can show two victories to every one of Ted's.

Folks, these are simply the facts.

Last night Trump took AZ and all 58 delegates, and so despite losing the 40 delegates in UT, he still increased his delegate lead by another 18 delegates, which means he now has 741 delegates and is almost 300 delegates in the lead.

So, while UT was a big win for Cruz, it was not any kind of fatal blow to Trump...and despite it, for the night, Trump continued to increase his lead.

And here's the clincher that nobody seems to be focusing on.

Cruz HAD to win AZ last night in order to have any viable path to the total delegates needed for the nomination.

But he lost AZ.

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

As of last night, Cruz CANNOT win enough delegates through the primary/caucus voting to win the nomination.

Trump, on the other hand, only needs 496 of the remaining 763 to clinch. That means he needs about 2/3rds of the remaining delgates.

It's not a sure thing, but I believe he most definitely can do it.

Let's do a little math and look at one path.

One Trump Path to the nomination:

Let's say Trump wins all of NY (95), and then these winner take all states: MT (27), SD (29), NE (36), and NJ (51).

Then let's say he wins 140 of the 172 in CA (and he may take them all). All of that gives him 378 delegates.

Let's say he wins 60% or RI (19) CT (28) and DE (16). That would be 37 delegates there.

Then proportionally, let's say he under performs and only wins 40% of the delegates in IN (57), WI (42), WA (44), WV (34) OR (28), NB (36) and NM (24). That's 102 delegates.

All of that, for those remaining 16 states, would give Trump another 502 delegates. Add that to his 741 and you end up with 1,249 delegates and he is over the top.

IMHO, this is a somewhat pessimistic forecast of what Trump might do.

Either way, it clearly shows that Trump has a viable and realistic path of sewing up the delegates and nomination before the convention.

In fact, as of last night, he is the only one who can.

---

Summary:

Finally, the GOPe may seem to be willing to back Cruz right now. But they are only doing so to try and deny Trump the nomination.

If they can successfully deny Trump the delegates, they will turn on Cruz in a heartbeat and in a brokered convention seek to throw him to the curb and bring in a GOPe approved candidate...and say to hell with what the people wanted.

And they will not care that they defy the voters and destroy any chance to win in the fall. This whole cycle has revealed that about the GOPe, which many of us suspected, but which they are now revealing in spades.

Ted Cruz is the man who can stop this.

I repeat my appeal to Ted Cruz, who has been my first choice throughout the primaries.

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410747/posts

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 12,37 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.

By so doing you will:

Unite the GOP behind Donald Trump and yourself, the two anti-GOPe candidates who have won an absolute majority of the vote and the delegates.
• Deal a much deserved body slam blow to the GOPe...which is exactly what the people are voting to do.
• Create a ticket that will absolutely destroy Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.
• Create an administration that can restore American greatness and quality.
• Create a potential for 16 years of principled, all-American leadership of the United States, and in the world

I hope and pray Cruz will make the right decision.

As I say, in the end, it very well may be that Trump can win any way.

But how much better it would be if he was able to do so resoundingly and in the process, unite the party despite the best efforts to the contrary of the GOPe.

[BeauBo]

Wyoming alone has 14 delegates that have not yet been allocated, and Cruz won 2/3 of the vote there.

Other States also have delegates who have not yet been committed, due the varied State rules.

So Cruz is not yet mathematically blocked, but it is getting close, and is most likely.

[Kaisersrsic]

If Trump gets to 1,237 because of the unbound delegates, then he gets to 1,237. I never said he needed 1,237 pledged delegates.

If he doesn’t get to 1,237, then nobody will have “basically stolen” anything from him.

[PJammers]

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were suppose to split the “conservative” vote. Jeb Bush was suppose to run up the middle. Trump entered the race and took the middle away from Bush.

Ask yourself why did Cruz only open an office in FL a week before the primary? Why did his campaign only spend a thosand dollars TOTAL in MI. Why does he mostly win in caucus states and not many primaries?

Jen was suppose to win FLA and MI. He was going to win all the caucuses and knock Rubio an Cruz out on Super Tuesday.

Now all they have is Cruz to do thier bidding. The problem is, he has to run against his conservative value image in order to bring Trump down.

He may win some Midwest states, but it is highly unlikely he will stop Trump from getting to 1237.

I guess they feel they don’t have anything to lose. To bad for Ted though. He will be the biggest loser if his current path continues.

[Psalm 144]

I have a profound and itching dislike of Levin, but I will bite my tongue and say nothing until he makes himself express on the idea of a brokered convention.

[yuleeyahoo]

Good analysis.

[Mr. K]

After their COMBINED total is over the threshold, Cruz should ask to meet with Trump, and they should meet over several days... neither one of them commenting on what is discussed...

Then after 3 days of private, closed door meetings (I don’t care if they go swimming and play pool and drink beer all day) the media will be nearly turning blue holding their breath in anticipation to find out what is going on, they should merge together and announce a coalition.

Trump can (and should) say “you never learn anything new if you only listen to people who always agree with you” and announce that he thinks Cruz will be a nice sounding board for CONSERVATIVE ideas, and even though they have had differences, they have decided to put them aside and work together for the benefit of THE COUNTRY- not each others political careers. And add “I’ve played hardball with Ted and he stood up to it and is still standing...” - etc etc...

This will have the media tied up in knots for days speculating and then analyzing the outcome for another few days and all the free publicity it will generate- hilLIARy will be in panic mode trying to get noticed.

...

THEN go after hilLIARy together on her CRINIMAL activity, focusing on why she is not yet in jail over and over and over and over and over....

...

The ONLY thing that worries me about hilLIARy is that she might get indicted 3 months before the election and have to drop out and they pick some young and energetic thing and give him 24/7 fawning media coverage and we end up with what happened in Canada where the village idiot son of Pierre Trudeau and his p***y flashing wife came on the scene 3 months before the election and won it.

[neverbluffer]

are you serious?

[Veracious Poet]

Cruz/GOPe supporters also be like

Trump voters be like

[wiseprince]

Yea, just like if Texas votes for the Republicans and a month later it goes into the Democrat pool of electoral votes it’s not technically stolen but everyone...EVERYONE knows that would be wrong and the will of the voters will not have been represented. I see this in the same manner.

[Bob434]

[[is that she might get indicted 3 months before the election and have to drop out and they pick some young and energetic thing and give him 24/7 fawning media coverage]]

My fear as well

[euram]

When Romney endorsed Cruz, he essentially said that Cruz could not really win the nomination, just vote for him to block Trump from getting the required 1237.

Cruz knows he can’t win out right, but he is more than willing to carry the water of the establishment, hoping for some kind of reward. He probably will get their backing for his Senate re-election campaign, but if he thinks they will hand him the nomination, he’s delusional.

[conservative98]

Levin has been expressing on it on his shows. He tried to give it credence on the last few shows by comparing a contested convention now to the one with Lincoln in 1860. But those were entirely different circumstances and they didn’t even have primaries that you could vote in back then.

[LNV]

Belay my last. The 538 site is counting Colorado. Who knows what’s going to happen there? The 839 number others have arrived at is correct.

[Vigilanteman]

As always, nice level headed analysis. A weak argument might be made that if Cruz can manage a win in Wisconsin, it will make up for the loss of Arizona last night.

But that's not likely to happen. The demographics in Arizona were far more favorable last night. To predict where Wisconsin goes, one only need to look at the states with the most comparable GOP demographics. Those states are Michigan and Illinois.

Cruz has a decent chance to win the following remaining states only-- both Dakotas, Montana and Nebraska. That's it.

If the "stop Trump" sentiment is stronger than the "let's concentrate on beating Hillary" sentiment, then you might possibly throw New Mexico and Indiana into that group. But even if Cruz wins all six, Trump will still clinch a majority by California.

[redangus]

Cruz should fight for every vote he can win and let the chips fall where they may. Why is it that the trumpkins who say their guy is such a YUGE WINNER always wants everybody else to quit? Winners take on all comers and win on the field, not by having the opposition forfeit the game. If he can win by amassing enough delegates good for him, we’ll all back him. But if needs others to drop out to win then he is not a winner in my book.

Do you think Trump’s friend Hillary will quit giving him the WH?

[TEXOKIE]

Next state Wisconsin where Trump picks will pick up ALL 42 Wisconsin delegates.

~~~
I have concerns that there is a big GOPe stronghold in Wisconsin making it difficult for Trump to obtain the 42 you speak of. What state is Rinsed P*nus from? What about the “Never Trumps’ under Jesse Ventura? Can anyone nay-say this? (I hope so!)

[Ingtar]

Yes, that is what I am counting. Winning 13 of 25 delegates is, I believe, the mark.

[Kaisersrsic]

About Trump being Cruz’s Vice President? Of course, I wasn’t being serious.

[Redleg Duke]

Jeff, a well-reasoned post, but, unfortunately, I am afraid that Cruz has talked himself into a corner that his arrogance and ego will not allow him to back out of.

I hope I am wrong!

[Ingtar]

I did miscount on my spreadsheet, however, Cruz needs 3 more majority wins.