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Now only Donald Trump has a viable path to 1.237 delegates
HERE ON FR | March 23, 2016 | Jeff Head

Posted on 03/23/2016 10:09:09 AM PDT by Jeff Head

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To: Jeff Head

Wyoming alone has 14 delegates that have not yet been allocated, and Cruz won 2/3 of the vote there.

Other States also have delegates who have not yet been committed, due the varied State rules.

So Cruz is not yet mathematically blocked, but it is getting close, and is most likely.


101 posted on 03/23/2016 11:23:45 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: wiseprince

If Trump gets to 1,237 because of the unbound delegates, then he gets to 1,237. I never said he needed 1,237 pledged delegates.

If he doesn’t get to 1,237, then nobody will have “basically stolen” anything from him.


102 posted on 03/23/2016 11:24:13 AM PDT by Kaisersrsic
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To: Jeff Head

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were suppose to split the “conservative” vote. Jeb Bush was suppose to run up the middle. Trump entered the race and took the middle away from Bush.

Ask yourself why did Cruz only open an office in FL a week before the primary? Why did his campaign only spend a thosand dollars TOTAL in MI. Why does he mostly win in caucus states and not many primaries?

Jen was suppose to win FLA and MI. He was going to win all the caucuses and knock Rubio an Cruz out on Super Tuesday.

Now all they have is Cruz to do thier bidding. The problem is, he has to run against his conservative value image in order to bring Trump down.

He may win some Midwest states, but it is highly unlikely he will stop Trump from getting to 1237.

I guess they feel they don’t have anything to lose. To bad for Ted though. He will be the biggest loser if his current path continues.


103 posted on 03/23/2016 11:24:36 AM PDT by PJammers (Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?)
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To: conservative98

I have a profound and itching dislike of Levin, but I will bite my tongue and say nothing until he makes himself express on the idea of a brokered convention.


104 posted on 03/23/2016 11:26:49 AM PDT by Psalm 144 (What are mere facts to a Dominionist Constitutionalist, small government globalist minion?)
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To: Jeff Head

Good analysis.


105 posted on 03/23/2016 11:28:54 AM PDT by yuleeyahoo ( Man does not control his own fate. The women in his life do that for him. - Groucho Marx)
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To: Jeff Head; All; The Mayor

After their COMBINED total is over the threshold, Cruz should ask to meet with Trump, and they should meet over several days... neither one of them commenting on what is discussed...

Then after 3 days of private, closed door meetings (I don’t care if they go swimming and play pool and drink beer all day) the media will be nearly turning blue holding their breath in anticipation to find out what is going on, they should merge together and announce a coalition.

Trump can (and should) say “you never learn anything new if you only listen to people who always agree with you” and announce that he thinks Cruz will be a nice sounding board for CONSERVATIVE ideas, and even though they have had differences, they have decided to put them aside and work together for the benefit of THE COUNTRY- not each others political careers. And add “I’ve played hardball with Ted and he stood up to it and is still standing...” - etc etc...

This will have the media tied up in knots for days speculating and then analyzing the outcome for another few days and all the free publicity it will generate- hilLIARy will be in panic mode trying to get noticed.

...

THEN go after hilLIARy together on her CRINIMAL activity, focusing on why she is not yet in jail over and over and over and over and over....

...

The ONLY thing that worries me about hilLIARy is that she might get indicted 3 months before the election and have to drop out and they pick some young and energetic thing and give him 24/7 fawning media coverage and we end up with what happened in Canada where the village idiot son of Pierre Trudeau and his p***y flashing wife came on the scene 3 months before the election and won it.


106 posted on 03/23/2016 11:29:16 AM PDT by Mr. K (Trump/???)
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To: Kaisersrsic

are you serious?


107 posted on 03/23/2016 11:31:25 AM PDT by neverbluffer
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To: proust
Cruz/GOPe supporters also be like

Trump voters be like

108 posted on 03/23/2016 11:33:32 AM PDT by Veracious Poet (Trump 2016 - Let's make America great again!)
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To: Kaisersrsic

Yea, just like if Texas votes for the Republicans and a month later it goes into the Democrat pool of electoral votes it’s not technically stolen but everyone...EVERYONE knows that would be wrong and the will of the voters will not have been represented. I see this in the same manner.


109 posted on 03/23/2016 11:34:11 AM PDT by wiseprince
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To: Mr. K

[[is that she might get indicted 3 months before the election and have to drop out and they pick some young and energetic thing and give him 24/7 fawning media coverage]]

My fear as well


110 posted on 03/23/2016 11:34:23 AM PDT by Bob434
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To: Jeff Head

When Romney endorsed Cruz, he essentially said that Cruz could not really win the nomination, just vote for him to block Trump from getting the required 1237.

Cruz knows he can’t win out right, but he is more than willing to carry the water of the establishment, hoping for some kind of reward. He probably will get their backing for his Senate re-election campaign, but if he thinks they will hand him the nomination, he’s delusional.


111 posted on 03/23/2016 11:35:05 AM PDT by euram
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To: Psalm 144

Levin has been expressing on it on his shows. He tried to give it credence on the last few shows by comparing a contested convention now to the one with Lincoln in 1860. But those were entirely different circumstances and they didn’t even have primaries that you could vote in back then.


112 posted on 03/23/2016 11:37:22 AM PDT by conservative98
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To: LNV

Belay my last. The 538 site is counting Colorado. Who knows what’s going to happen there? The 839 number others have arrived at is correct.


113 posted on 03/23/2016 11:39:59 AM PDT by LNV
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To: Jeff Head
As always, nice level headed analysis. A weak argument might be made that if Cruz can manage a win in Wisconsin, it will make up for the loss of Arizona last night.

But that's not likely to happen. The demographics in Arizona were far more favorable last night. To predict where Wisconsin goes, one only need to look at the states with the most comparable GOP demographics. Those states are Michigan and Illinois.

Cruz has a decent chance to win the following remaining states only-- both Dakotas, Montana and Nebraska. That's it.

If the "stop Trump" sentiment is stronger than the "let's concentrate on beating Hillary" sentiment, then you might possibly throw New Mexico and Indiana into that group. But even if Cruz wins all six, Trump will still clinch a majority by California.

114 posted on 03/23/2016 11:40:22 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (ObaMao: Fake America, Fake Messiah, Fake Black man. How many fakes can you fit into one Zer0?)
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To: Jeff Head

Cruz should fight for every vote he can win and let the chips fall where they may. Why is it that the trumpkins who say their guy is such a YUGE WINNER always wants everybody else to quit? Winners take on all comers and win on the field, not by having the opposition forfeit the game. If he can win by amassing enough delegates good for him, we’ll all back him. But if needs others to drop out to win then he is not a winner in my book.

Do you think Trump’s friend Hillary will quit giving him the WH?


115 posted on 03/23/2016 11:46:59 AM PDT by redangus
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To: Red Steel; Jeff Head

Next state Wisconsin where Trump picks will pick up ALL 42 Wisconsin delegates.

~~~
I have concerns that there is a big GOPe stronghold in Wisconsin making it difficult for Trump to obtain the 42 you speak of. What state is Rinsed P*nus from? What about the “Never Trumps’ under Jesse Ventura? Can anyone nay-say this? (I hope so!)


116 posted on 03/23/2016 11:47:39 AM PDT by TEXOKIE (We must surrender only to our Holy God and never to the evil that has befallen us.)
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To: ripnbang

Yes, that is what I am counting. Winning 13 of 25 delegates is, I believe, the mark.


117 posted on 03/23/2016 11:48:39 AM PDT by Ingtar (64.7% del allocated. Trump 61.0%, Cruz 37.7% of required for nomination 3/23)
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To: neverbluffer

About Trump being Cruz’s Vice President? Of course, I wasn’t being serious.


118 posted on 03/23/2016 11:49:23 AM PDT by Kaisersrsic
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To: Jeff Head

Jeff, a well-reasoned post, but, unfortunately, I am afraid that Cruz has talked himself into a corner that his arrogance and ego will not allow him to back out of.

I hope I am wrong!


119 posted on 03/23/2016 11:49:56 AM PDT by Redleg Duke (Remember...after the primaries, we better still be on the same team!)
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To: ripnbang

I did miscount on my spreadsheet, however, Cruz needs 3 more majority wins.


120 posted on 03/23/2016 11:51:05 AM PDT by Ingtar (64.7% del allocated. Trump 61.0%, Cruz 37.7% of required for nomination 3/23)
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