Posted on 03/23/2016 10:09:09 AM PDT by Jeff Head
Wyoming alone has 14 delegates that have not yet been allocated, and Cruz won 2/3 of the vote there.
Other States also have delegates who have not yet been committed, due the varied State rules.
So Cruz is not yet mathematically blocked, but it is getting close, and is most likely.
If Trump gets to 1,237 because of the unbound delegates, then he gets to 1,237. I never said he needed 1,237 pledged delegates.
If he doesn’t get to 1,237, then nobody will have “basically stolen” anything from him.
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were suppose to split the “conservative” vote. Jeb Bush was suppose to run up the middle. Trump entered the race and took the middle away from Bush.
Ask yourself why did Cruz only open an office in FL a week before the primary? Why did his campaign only spend a thosand dollars TOTAL in MI. Why does he mostly win in caucus states and not many primaries?
Jen was suppose to win FLA and MI. He was going to win all the caucuses and knock Rubio an Cruz out on Super Tuesday.
Now all they have is Cruz to do thier bidding. The problem is, he has to run against his conservative value image in order to bring Trump down.
He may win some Midwest states, but it is highly unlikely he will stop Trump from getting to 1237.
I guess they feel they don’t have anything to lose. To bad for Ted though. He will be the biggest loser if his current path continues.
I have a profound and itching dislike of Levin, but I will bite my tongue and say nothing until he makes himself express on the idea of a brokered convention.
Good analysis.
After their COMBINED total is over the threshold, Cruz should ask to meet with Trump, and they should meet over several days... neither one of them commenting on what is discussed...
Then after 3 days of private, closed door meetings (I don’t care if they go swimming and play pool and drink beer all day) the media will be nearly turning blue holding their breath in anticipation to find out what is going on, they should merge together and announce a coalition.
Trump can (and should) say “you never learn anything new if you only listen to people who always agree with you” and announce that he thinks Cruz will be a nice sounding board for CONSERVATIVE ideas, and even though they have had differences, they have decided to put them aside and work together for the benefit of THE COUNTRY- not each others political careers. And add “I’ve played hardball with Ted and he stood up to it and is still standing...” - etc etc...
This will have the media tied up in knots for days speculating and then analyzing the outcome for another few days and all the free publicity it will generate- hilLIARy will be in panic mode trying to get noticed.
...
THEN go after hilLIARy together on her CRINIMAL activity, focusing on why she is not yet in jail over and over and over and over and over....
...
The ONLY thing that worries me about hilLIARy is that she might get indicted 3 months before the election and have to drop out and they pick some young and energetic thing and give him 24/7 fawning media coverage and we end up with what happened in Canada where the village idiot son of Pierre Trudeau and his p***y flashing wife came on the scene 3 months before the election and won it.
are you serious?
Trump voters be like
Yea, just like if Texas votes for the Republicans and a month later it goes into the Democrat pool of electoral votes it’s not technically stolen but everyone...EVERYONE knows that would be wrong and the will of the voters will not have been represented. I see this in the same manner.
[[is that she might get indicted 3 months before the election and have to drop out and they pick some young and energetic thing and give him 24/7 fawning media coverage]]
My fear as well
When Romney endorsed Cruz, he essentially said that Cruz could not really win the nomination, just vote for him to block Trump from getting the required 1237.
Cruz knows he can’t win out right, but he is more than willing to carry the water of the establishment, hoping for some kind of reward. He probably will get their backing for his Senate re-election campaign, but if he thinks they will hand him the nomination, he’s delusional.
Levin has been expressing on it on his shows. He tried to give it credence on the last few shows by comparing a contested convention now to the one with Lincoln in 1860. But those were entirely different circumstances and they didn’t even have primaries that you could vote in back then.
Belay my last. The 538 site is counting Colorado. Who knows what’s going to happen there? The 839 number others have arrived at is correct.
But that's not likely to happen. The demographics in Arizona were far more favorable last night. To predict where Wisconsin goes, one only need to look at the states with the most comparable GOP demographics. Those states are Michigan and Illinois.
Cruz has a decent chance to win the following remaining states only-- both Dakotas, Montana and Nebraska. That's it.
If the "stop Trump" sentiment is stronger than the "let's concentrate on beating Hillary" sentiment, then you might possibly throw New Mexico and Indiana into that group. But even if Cruz wins all six, Trump will still clinch a majority by California.
Cruz should fight for every vote he can win and let the chips fall where they may. Why is it that the trumpkins who say their guy is such a YUGE WINNER always wants everybody else to quit? Winners take on all comers and win on the field, not by having the opposition forfeit the game. If he can win by amassing enough delegates good for him, we’ll all back him. But if needs others to drop out to win then he is not a winner in my book.
Do you think Trump’s friend Hillary will quit giving him the WH?
Next state Wisconsin where Trump picks will pick up ALL 42 Wisconsin delegates.
~~~
I have concerns that there is a big GOPe stronghold in Wisconsin making it difficult for Trump to obtain the 42 you speak of. What state is Rinsed P*nus from? What about the “Never Trumps’ under Jesse Ventura? Can anyone nay-say this? (I hope so!)
Yes, that is what I am counting. Winning 13 of 25 delegates is, I believe, the mark.
About Trump being Cruz’s Vice President? Of course, I wasn’t being serious.
Jeff, a well-reasoned post, but, unfortunately, I am afraid that Cruz has talked himself into a corner that his arrogance and ego will not allow him to back out of.
I hope I am wrong!
I did miscount on my spreadsheet, however, Cruz needs 3 more majority wins.
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