* LIVE TUE 3/22 ELECTION THREAD (AZ and UT)

Self | 3/22 | tatown

[tatown]

AZ - 58 delegates (Winner Take All)

UT - 40 delegates (Proportional, WTA > 50%)

[No Dems 2016]

Recents polls suggest Cruz will win UT and Trump will win AZ. There is some question as to whether Cruz can get >50% in UT, thus securing all 40 delegates.

I agree. I think Trump will comfortably win Arizona and maintain his momentum. I hope we can keep Cruz to under 50% in Utah. The wildcard is allowing Utahns to vote online - larger turnout could hurt Cruz, I suppose.

[No Dems 2016]

Ahem UT-—get a clue. And your Mittens is a dufus loser. Stop being so holier than thou,

I agree. Utah is likely one of the only states to listen to Romney's vicious attacks on Trump.

[Suz in AZ]

I think that telling UT that Cruz is over 50% will hurt him too. Makes people feel safe in not voting if something comes up. False sense of security.

[acoulterfan]

Soros electronic voting will assure Cruz gets the 50%!

[Suz in AZ]

I hope a Trump administration will outlaw computer voting. Where I’m at we have nice fill in the bubble ballots that can be both optically scanned and hand counted.

[Jim W N]

Showing Trump needs 60% - 62% of remaining delegates.

Think he’ll do much better than that.

Calculations below.

As of 3/22 AM if Trump has 678 delegates
1237 Total delegates needed
678 Trump delegates to date
559 Bal Trump delegates needed
906 Total delegates remaining
62% % bal Trump delegates needed

As of 3/22 AM if Trump has 693 delegates
1237 Total delegates needed
693 Trump delegates to date
544 Bal Trump delegates needed
906 Total delegates remaining
60% % bal Trump delegates needed

[bigbob]

Nice graphic!

[major-pelham]

Nice photo!

[major-pelham]

If u take out NY/NJ Cruz is ten short if he gets every single other delegate. Cruz is out of it as of today.

[southernindymom]

I have a TRUMP sticker on my 4 Runner, I plan to vote for him in May after it’s already been decided, as we vote so dang late. But I wouldn’t be upset with Cruz either. I just thank TRUMP for getting the conversations flowing on immigration, taxes, jobs, terrorism. With the POS in DC now,WH, SENATE, HOUSE it never would have been on the radar. I’m ready to see all of them voted out of office that have not consistantly voted conservative.

[Kenny]

I’d be upset with Cruz. There’s two people left on the ballot, Trump and the establishment. Cruz has taken their money, their endorsements, and their orders. How do you think Neil Bush got his job with the Cruz campaign.

We’ve seen over and over where the establishment gets us.

[pax_et_bonum]

“President #45! ;)”

I think you’re right.

:-)

[frankenMonkey]

Big, and I mean BIG, snowstorm right now in Salt Lake. Should clear by this evening, but the roads are sloppy.

Also, a few reports (via comments on local news sites) that people who registered to vote online are not able to. Could be traffic or glitches. Unfortunately, the process to vote online required TWO registrations, one for the Republican Party, and a second to get your PIN in order to vote. This was not made clear on the GOP websites (two separate sites).

[justlittleoleme]

If Trump is the nominee we will Lose to Clinton, and that would just be a disaster.

People say he hasn't even started on Clinton yet. Ok. But with negatives like he has, how could he possibly overcome the Clinton machine.

[SamAdams76]

If I understand Utah correctly, you need at least 50% of the vote for it to be winner take-all.

Otherwise, the 40 delegates are split evenly between all those who get at least 15% of the vote.

So if both Trump and Cruz finish between 15-49%, they will both come away with 20 delegates. Even if Cruz is at 49% and Trump is at 15%.

If Kasich also gets at least 15%, then the 40 delegates are split three ways with Cruz, Trump and Kasich all getting 13 each. I suppose the delegate left over would go to whoever finished highest.

Let me know if I'm wrong but that's the way I understand it.

If I understand correctly, than this could be a pretty decent night for Trump if he gets the 58 delegates in AZ and then picks up maybe 13 in UT. Not to mention the 9 available in American Samoa.

[frankenMonkey]

I believe that they are split proportionally, not evenly.

[wiseprince]

Trump was at 11% in the poll I saw which means he wouldn’t get any delegates in Utah. Romney will make sure all delegates in Utah are his people anyways. Trump should have fought for this at least to get 15%. Every bit counts

[SamAdams76]

Well that’s if the poll was 100% accurate. I’m thinking Trump is good for 15% in UT. A tougher challenge might be keeping Cruz under 50%. I agree Trump should have made more effort in UT. The difference between zero delegates and as many as 13-20 is huge.

[Jim W N]

So many polls with different readings. I understand RCP gets a lot of its data from Politico which I think skews to the Left.

My GUT Poll says Trump beats Hillary like a drum and Cruz loses to her.

[HoosierWordsmith]

Thanks for the post! The RCP averages tend to even out over time any polling differences in methodologies and biases (special sauces of each pollster)...So, it looks like Clinton has always led Trump over the past 6 months, while Cruz has been very competitive against her over the past few months...this data would bode well for Cruz if he is able to win the nomination!