Posted on 03/21/2016 10:19:26 PM PDT by Steelfish
Donald Trump Will (Almost Certainly) Never Be Elected President. Here’s Why.
By Greg Sargent March 21
With Donald Trump steamrolling towards the GOP nomination, the political chatter is increasingly focused on whether Trump could win a general election by making surprise inroads into states in the industrial Midwest. Many Democrats and nonpartisan observers see this as probably the only plausible (if that’s even the right word for it) path for Trump, who might do this mainly by running up huge numbers among white voters — particularly blue collar whites.
But a new examination of the demographics and projected voting patterns in some of the key Rust Belt states underscores just how unlikely this really is.
snip)
Given the overall margins that Obama won these states by — which are in some cases quite large — Trump would have to improve enormously on Romney’s performance among blue collar whites:
— In Michigan, where Romney beat Obama by 53-45 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 62-36, an improvement of 18 points.
— In Wisconsin, where Romney beat Obama by 50-48 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 56-42, an improvement of 12 points.
— In Pennsylvania, where Romney beat Obama by 56-42 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 63-36, an improvement of 13 points. — In Ohio, where Romney beat Obama by 57-41 among working class whites, Trump would have to win among them by 60-38, an improvement of six points. (This is lower than the others because Ohio was much closer overall; but even six points is a pretty sizable improvement.)
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Not really. You will see how Trump’s lead narrows when the field started to winnow.
Address the substance of the article since both sides can play the pictures game.
Thinking of two faces, listen to this:
"journalists" got the brains God give gophers when it comes to math and/or statistics.
Shut up, Greg.
“Demographics have changed from 25 years ago.”
True, but Trump pulls better, and from a broader spread of demographics, than anyone else in the race. On either side.
I know you’re skeptical, but before this thing is over, I think he’s going to make you a believer.
Trump delivered a terrific speech at AIPAC; Cruz was petty and bombed big time. The contrast was so stark that you should be embarrassed for Ted this evening. A teleprompter would not have helped him. Ted has a very difficult time connecting with any audience not made up of his core constituents.
There’s no reason to believe that non-whites and college educated will vote the same way for Obama as for Hellery.
I hate to tell you Steelfish, but the field has narrowed as much as it is going to. Kasich says he is not going anywhere. Maybe Ted should lean on his GOPe buddies, Romney, Graham and Co. to get Kasich out of the picture so we can test your theory.
Steelfish you are dreaming do you see thousands upon thousands of people flocking to see Teddy Bear???? Do you REALLY see peop,e fleeing to the voting places to vote Cruz???? Do you REALLY believe 50,000 registered DEMS switched to pubbie in PA. so far to vote for Teddy Bear!!! Steelfish you need to open your eyes Teddy Bear could NOT EVEN win evangelicals they don’t trusTED!!!! Teddy Bear has only won Caucus states besides his home state and OK. the reason he is ONLY winning caucus states is because people can be manipulated by their peers and Cruz plants in the caucuses!!!
“Not really. You will see how Trump’s lead narrows when the field started to winnow.”
Sorry, I don’t see it !! Explain to me why all the rolling national polls continue to show Trump maintaining the same margin over Cruz even after other candidates have dropped out?
By the way, the article’s focus is on white voters. Trump has already shown he can attract minority voters; Romney completely bombed out in this segment.
And Normandy Beach was SURE to beat the snot out of the Allied battleships that were shelling it in June 1944.
Nice try, Steelfish.
If you look at these numbers, they are increases of less than 10 percent.
If you look at the increases in voter turnout they are on the average 60 percent and in some cases 300 and 400 percent.
Gonna. Happen.
Ted Cruz needs to win Arizona and Wisconsin. He needs to WIN instead of blaming other candidates for staying in; the same candidates that both he and Trump have to go against.
Erik Erickson talk
“Demographer Ruy Teixeira conducted this analysis at my request. Teixeira was the lead analyst on a comprehensive report on the projected makeup of the 2016 electorate that was released by the Center for American Progress late last year. He built on that report in this new analysis.”
WOW! Cruzadians now recognize that the Center for American Progress is the source of all valid analysis of the election! Phantastic! Phenomenal! Now we know that the Tediban are all consistent conservatives, just like their dear leader! ;-)
This article assumes Hillary gets the same support as Obama...
Simply won’t happen. She is alienating young voters, and while she will get a strong majority in AA crowds, she won’t have nearly as many of them motivated to get to the polls.
This is blatant propaganda hogwash. Romney could never dream of getting 25% of the black vote. He got 7% max. Cruz would get about the same.
Whatever blue-collar and minority votes Romney got, or Cruz could get, Trump will easily double those numbers. The April and May primaries will certainly paint a clearer picture of this.
04/05 WI, 96
04/19 NY, 95
04/26 CT, 28
04/26 DE, 16
04/26 MD, 38
04/26 PA, 71
04/26 RI, 19
05/03 IN, 57
05/10 NE, 36
05/10 WV, 37
05/17 OR, 28
05/24 WA, 44
06/07 CA, 172
06/07 MT, 27
06/07 NJ, 51
06/07 NM, 24
06/07 SD, 29
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