Posted on 03/16/2016 12:25:38 PM PDT by ifinnegan
Cruz has been on the ground in CA for a year already, and he will do very well here. Because the bulk of the delegates are WTA by congressional district, you really have 54 separate elections. Because there are so few Republicans in so may congressional districts, being able to identify those voters and getting them to vote can make much more of a difference than “yuuge” rallies in Orange County or San Diego. You get just as many delegates by winning 10k votes in Pelosi’s district as you would by winning 100K votes in Orange County. And Cruz’s team has the big data model down pat.
I think Trump will lose CA easily even in a 3-way-race. NY and NJ are probably Trumpland. I think Cruz could get the others in a one-on-one. With Kasich in, probably not.
Nope there Are 6 states that are pure winner take all.
AZ, NJ, DE, SD, NE & MT
I worked my math with Trump taking NJ, DE and AZ and assumed Cruz took the other three.. The rest of the states are hybrid/proportional.
Trump should easily get 55% or better from what is left especially in a 3 way race. As I said look at MO, that’s as close as Cruz could do without winning and Trump still will get at least 61.5% of its delegates.
In head to head without Kasich in the mix, Trump will easily get 50%+ in many of the remaining hybrid states and take all the delegates. Cruz is weak in the states coming up.. His strength is in the west. Rust belt, mid Atlantic and North East in a head to head Trump will win more than enough in a head to head to lock it up. This is what Kasich does he slows down the Trump count by preventing the 50%, win all district winner take all triggers in those hybrid states.
Political parties, not voters, choose their presidential nominees, a Republican convention rules member told CNBC, a day after GOP front-runner Donald Trump rolled up more big primary victories.
This is the GOP.
Did you donate the $2,500.00 you saved on healthcare to Cruz?
Sure, maybe thirty people pose less of a problem than 30,000.
Trump says if you criticize Muslims you deserve to be attacked by them, is that why you support Trump?
Yes for the good of the conservative movement and America
Not just the end of the GOP, but the Republic.
You misspelled Can.
Ne picked up thirty points when he won Ohio, about the only way to do that is fraud.
Trump also says you won't have them to criticize if they aren't here.
No, he never said that.
Yesterday trump got more votes than Hillary in Ohio and Missouri despite having 3 party opponents to her one
He gained only 20k less votes than Hillary in Florida, after giving up over 1 million votes to his 2 main opponents and over 150,000 votes to the rest of the field
Sanders got more votes in FL than did Cruz
Gop voters in FL outnumbered the democrat voters by over 700,000, a surge known as “ the Trump effect”
Thus far Trump has scored over 8 million primary votes
Sorry but I do not know how many votes Ted Cruz has gotten maybe you can tell us
Despite the evidence anyone can look up, the mantra being fed to us is that “ according to polls” Trump loses to Hillary and only Cruz can beat her
The democrats know who can beat Hillary and he is the one battling Soros’ winged monkeys attacking his campaign rallies, and wearing a bullet proof vest
Trump, drop out. It's only fair.
I just don’t see Cruz playing well in PA, DE, MD, CT, NJ, or NY. In fact I could see him pulling 3rd in some of those places behind Kasich. The same for the West Coast OR, WA, and CA. I spent much of my life living on the Wedt coast and that is not Cruz country. He’ll do just fine in the inter-mountain west but there ain’t many delegates out there.
Bottom line is that Ted needs ~80% of remaining delegates and he won’t even get half that.
He doesn't have to. All that is required is that Kasich and Cruz get a combined 300 delegates more by my calculation, and we go to an open convention. And then we get to see if Donald is the deal-maker he thinks he is.
And Cruz will do a lot better in CA than you think. The CA Republican Assembly has endorsed him, and he has had staff out here for a year getting organized. Since each congressional district is WTA, it is like 54 separate elections, most of which will be won by a few thousand votes at most. So the person with the best GOTV in the most districts will have an advantage.
Point taken.
I cheated. I used two brain cells to do the math using machine language using 1’s and 0’s:
Trump has 673 delegates at this time. There are 1,061 delegates left on the table.
Trump must get 1,237 delegates to win the nomination.
The math:
1,237 - 673 = 564 (delegates needed to win the nomination)
564/1,061 = percentage of delegates Trump needs to win to get the nomination = 53%
Cruz has 411 delegates at this time. There are 1,061 delegates left on the table. Cruz must get 1,237 delegates to win the nomination (I repeat this because this is black and white).
The math: 1,237 - 411 = 826 (delegates needed to win the nomination) 564/1,061 = percentage of delegates Cruz needs to win to get the nomination = 78%
#########
After the math, how will Cruz get 78% of the remaining delegates? Are people living brain dead in the Fantasy World of the Unicorn Farm
The conclusion:
Rafael E. Cruz . . .
I don’t care.
You can go by bike.
You can go on a Veep-Bike if you like.
If you like you can go in a new red hat.
Leto, you are a freakin Cruzite/Obama Ass Hole.
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