Posted on 03/16/2016 10:47:06 AM PDT by Jeff Head
(click on image for full resolution) These presidential primary numbers and analysis include the primaries from the Tuesday, March 15, 2016 contests for the GOP and DNC. On the Republican side, this included Florida, Ohio, North carolina, Missouri, Illinois, and the Northern Marian Islands. On the Democrat side, it included Florida, Ohio, North carolina, Missouri, and Illinois. GOP Results: only one-fourth of one percent. In North Carolina, the difference was three and one half percent in Trump's favor. John Kasich won his home state of Ohio by nine and one half percentage points. The big loser on March 15th was Marco Rubio, who finished 2nd in his home state, but lost there by over nineteen percentage points, and who then placed fourth in all of the other races. This resulted in Marco Rubio announcing, at the end of the night, that he was suspending his candidacy for the 2016 GOP Nomination.
(click on image for full resolution) This has resulted in Donald Trump having a 7.5 million popular votes compared to just under 5.5 million for Ted Cruz, about 3.4 million for Marco Rubio, and now over 2.7 million for John Kasich. Altogether over 19.7 million people have voted in the GOP Primaries, which continue to set records for overall turnout. In terms of the principle prize...delegates:
(click on image for full resolution) A total of 367 delegates were available on Tuesday, March 15, 2016, for the various GOP candidates. At the end of the night, according to these numbers, Donald Trump was the big winner amassing an additional 221 delegates. This now gives him a total of 679 delegates...well over half of those needed for the nomination. Although he did not win a single race, Ted cruz continued to accumlate delegates in the states that were not winner take all. Altogether he accunlated another 64 delegates, bringin his total to 470 delegates. Marco Rubio accumulated only 4 delegates for the evening, bringing his total to 167, where he ends up with his suspeneded campaign. John Kasich, as a reult of winning his home state of Ohio, which was a winner take all state, accumulated 77 delegates. This brings his total count to 137 delegates. GOP Analysis: patrticularly in Florida. It had little effect as Trummp won Florida by almost twenty percent in any case. By winning 221 delegates without Ohio, Donald Trump established himself as the almost sure winner of the GOP nomination. Ted Cruz had a disappointing night. He expected to win two of the contests (IL and MO) and place well in a third (NC). As it was, he ran very close in two contests (MO and NC) as mentioned, but still did not win one race on March 15th. His delegate count, which had been about 100 behind Trump, now has fallen off to over 200 delegates behind Trump. At this point it is extremely unlikely that Ted Cruz can win enough delegates to overtake Donald Trump and win the nomination outright. It is possible for Cruz to continue forward competing and probably win another four or five states. If he does that, it is possible that his delegate count when combined with that of Kasich and Rubio, could keep Trump from an outright win before the convention. But such a course would deeply divide the party, and almost assure a Democratic win in November if a fight is pressed on the convetnion floor to deny Trump the nomination. It is my opinion, at this point, that the best thing Ted Cruz could do would be to wait until his and Donald Trump's combined total of delegates climbs over the threshold for nomination, (and this will almost assuredly occur by the end of March) and then make a deal with Trump where Ted cruz commits his delegates to Trump in exchange for Cruz becoming the VP selection for Donald Trump. Doing this would accomplish several important things:
Will it occurr to the Cruz campaign and to Ted Cruz himself to do this? we shall see. As stated, Marco Rubio had a disasterous night. And everyone saw it coming. Rubio should have ended his campagn before his humiliation in his own home state of Florida. But he could not pull back. Quite frankly, it is my opinion that in an environment, where so much frustration and anger has developed against the GOP establishment (and with good reason), that Marco Rubio assured his own fate before the campaign even started. When he was elected as a TEA Party supporter and having made promises about the size of government and immigration, and then immediately threw in with the Gang of Eight on immigrtion reform, he betrayed his voters and they never fogot. In so doing, he framed himself as the very GOPe that he spoke against in his concession speech last night. John Kasich accomplished his principle goal for the last two months in winning his home state. It is true he denied Trump those delegates, but Trump's otherwise very strong evening discounted most of the downside of Kasich's victory. with Trump riding the swell of his good perfromances since super Tuesday, he is going forwward without breaking much of a sweat over the loss in Ohio. John Kasich on the other hand, has played his hand. There is really nowhere else for him to go after winning Ohio. He will try and parlay that victory into some sort of momentum, but my own believe is that there is no place for that momentum to go. Kasich is likely to continue on in the hopes of Cruz doing well enough to lead to a convetion fight where Kasich believes his one hundred and something delgates can become an issue. That takes us back to my recommendation for Cruz. If Cruz throws in with Trump soon and unites the voters in the GOP, then all of the drama about the convetnion goes away. And IT NEEDS TO GO AWAY. DNC Results: Clinton won every single state. There was no rust belt surpirse in Ohio or Illinois. It is true that Bernie continues to garner delegates, but Clinton has set herself on a trend line now that will certainly lead to her nomination...short of the same issue she has had since the start.
(click on image for full resolution) Hillary Clinton's popular vote has widened to over eight and one-half million total votes. Bernie is well behind her at just over six million votes. Overall, the DNC primaries have attracted over 14.7 million voters. But compared to the GOP's 19.7 million, the Democrats continue to lag behind in turnout. This simply has to be a concern for the DNC...and that is with Bernie exciting the young people. Without Benrie's sociailistic utopia appeal to the young, the DNC turnout would be appalling. In terms of the principle prize...delegates:
(click on image for full resolution) On March 15th there were a total of just under 800 delegates available in the Democratic races. Hillary won right at 500 of them while Bernie won 300. The result of last night was Bernie falling another 200 delgates behind Hillary. In total, Hillary now has right at 1,470 delegates who are committed to her from the contests already held. Bernie has 870...six hundred behind Hillary. when you consider super delegates from other states that have not voted yet, but which have committed to Hillary, Hillary's lead grows by a couple of hundred more. DNC Analysis: But Hillary's email scandal continues to be a shadow over Hillary's success. Everyone is waiting for the results of the FBI investigation. Should the decide to recommend prosecuting Hillary...everything would change. This is why it is likely that Bernie will remain engaged no matter how many delegates Hillary wins. Summarizing the DNC side. Bernie Sanders had a bad night on March 15th, and it means that the primary race, short of an FBI announcment against Hillary is going to produce a Hillary Clinton DNC nomination for President. The only potential game changer remains the FBI investigation. OTHER DATA: Here are some other charts of interest. GOP Overal Popular vote Percentage chart, followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote, followed by a map of the current states won:
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(click on image for full resolution) DNC Overal Popular vote Percentage vote chart followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote:
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My analysis of last night...and a recommendation to the Cruz campaign. (See the GOP Analysis Section).
Trump/Cruz would destroy Trump.
Because Nevada and Eastern Idaho portend well for Trump in California, Washington, and Oregon, it behooves Ted Cruz to take your advice. If these two tickets combine, then Cruz, who is only 44 years old, will be the heir apparent. That is not a bad place to be.
No candidate who is serious about winning will say that he is courting the VP slot. That is campaign suicide, so Trump cannot have Cruz say it either, IF Trump wants to keep Kasich at bay.
It cannot be uttered until after the last state is in the primary results book.
Kasich is so clearly opposed to Trump and all Trump stands for that it’s hard to imagine Trump selecting Kasich as a VP. Kasich is also old enough to not want it.
Cruz, on the other hand, could only be benefitted by it. But again the same caution: unless he wants to kill his votes in the upcoming states and turn 2nd place over to Kasich, Cruz will never indicate that he’s in it for the VP slot.
I agree. Lyin’ Ted as vp or in any faction of government, is still a lyin’n Ted. I dont trust him not to do what it takes to become prez. If Trump links himself with THAT, then as a voter, im done. If the Gope dosenfranchizes thevalid winner, im done. Theres absolutely no reason to vote, or spend the energy and gas trying because its meaningless. There is no vote.
Trump = thesis. Cruz = antithesis. Synthesis = Trump/Cruz ticket. Trump will save America from dying, and then Cruz will nurse it back to health.
No more than Reagan/Bush destroyed Reagan.
Cruz is not electable. And he is not eligible.
Great work Jeff. Thanks!
You are welcome.
To me...its pretty clear what ought to happen at this point.
I'm not opposed to a Trump/Cruz ticket, frankly it's the fair approach as these two got the most votes.
I think it would most definitely be fair...but it would also:
- Unite the vast majority of GOP voters.
- Deal a mortal blow to the GOPe.
- End all talk and speculation about any brokered convention.
- Be a ticket that would absolutely smash Hillar (or Sanders) in November.
They then have four years to hollow out the party and rebuild it.
Cruz will head the Senate.
Money and support will go to Freedom Caucus candidates.
We can do this.
I hope they do.
I’d love to see Trump as Pres for eight years, followed by eight years of Cruz.
We need that kind of time and committed, concerted effort to address the myriad harm that has been done to our republic.
I pray it will be so...and I pray they will actually succeed.
Very thorough. I enjoyed it.
Worst thing about this election so far is that Hillary Clinton is seen as a legitimate candidate for President, with the right experience. To me it is like electing a head of cabbage as mayor.
I do pray she receives justice.
Amen to that.
The best the Dems have is a power crzzy leftist woman who allowed brave Americans to die and then lied about it over and over again, who has attacked woman who were victimized by her sexual preadtor husband, and who was willing to play loose with the security of this nation so that she could keep her official government emails private. either he, or a self-admitted abject socialist who wants to give everything away in the country so he can bring us economically to our knees and double down on the transflrmmation that Obama has started.
That’s it. That’s what they offer.
And they have purposely created millions of mush-headed automatons utterly dependent on the government, who will vote for anyone or anything...no matter who or what they are...so long as they believe that they will to get their “free” stuff, with no earthly conception of how they are being led down the primrose path like a bunch of lemmings.
I think everything that is happening right now is a result of all the prayers from everybody the past 8 years.
Our Saving Patriot(s) is not perfect. That is not the Patriot we need right now. The Patriot we need right now is a fighter who won’t back down, and he is Trump with the legal mind of Cruz.
I know so many not poor libs either voting for their own succes’s demise in Bernie or thinking Hillary is a normal person and a reasonable candidate somehow. Thinking about it makes me wish I could signal Scotty to beam me up. So glad there are likemindeds around here.
FYI...sorry for any double pings.
Hillary & Bernie combined (* ++) 9,753,448
(*Nebraska and Colorado Dem primaries already occurred, but GOP has not=144,330)
Hillary/Bernie Total*:
9,609,118
(++ No votes for anyone other than Hillary or Bernie included)
Republican totals: (**)
20,220,500
(**Carson, Paul, Santorum, Gilmore, Fiorina, Huckabee, Bush have dropped out=1,086,724 including 677,193 for Carson and 249,733 for Bush)
Republican totals (less candidates who have dropped out):
19,133,776
Republican advantage in states that have voted:
9,524,658
In 2012 Obama was not contested. He had 6,158,064. But in 2008, when he was contested he and Hillary combined for 36 million. Sound like a lot?
In the last contested election on both sides, 2008, the GOP had a total of 20,039,034 votes. We have beaten the '08 total by almost 200,000 votes and we are just half way through.
We are halfway through and GOP candidates have totaled 20,200,000. Republicans if current trends hold would exceed the 2008 Dem primary turnout by FOUR POINT FOUR MILLION.
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