But it shouldn't be that way, because there was a significant poll in December.
www.moscout.com
MISSOURI REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT PRIMARY POLL
Survey conducted December 18 through December 19, 2015. 1,528 likely Republican Presidential Primary voters participated in the survey.
Q: If the Republican Primary Election for President of the United States were held today, for whom would you vote?
Donald Trump: 33%
Ted Cruz: 23%
Marco Rubio: 12%
John Kasich: 1%
Ben Carson: 8%
Jeb Bush: 3%
Chris Christie: 3%
Carly Fiorina: 2%
Rand Paul: 1%
Undecided: 14% On top of that, the August poll that RCP is keeping around contained additional data that is relevant. Many candidates have dropped out since August, so for that poll it may be better to look at what were people's (first + second) preferences:
MISSOURI AUGUST 2015
Combined (First + Second Choices)
Trump 33%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 7% Notice that those two polls really are not THAT different. Now add to that, the constant polling that is gathered by iSideWith.com, which for the latest 30 days has been as follows for Missouri...
MISSOURI Feb-March 2016 (latest 30 days)Trump 35% Rubio 21% Cruz 18% Kasich 7%
So, based on theese polls, and recent sentiment in Missouri, this state SHOULD be Donald's on Tuesday.
The iSideWith.com data also breaks down each candidate's strength per district, so Donald's and Ted's delegate haul can be estimated as follows:
Likely Likely
Trump Cruz
Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Delgates Delegates
District 1 34% 16% 16% 13% 5 0
District 2 32% 14% 25% 11% 5 0
District 3 39% 17% 20% 7% 5 0
District 4 33% 16% 20% 8% 5 0
District 5 27% 17% 22% 11% 5 0
District 6 32% 19% 12% 12% 5 0
District 7 23% 25% 19% 4% 0 5
District 8 49% 16% 11% 4% 5 0
statewide winner...................... 9 0
=== ==
Total Delgates: 44 5 One flaw with this estimate is that Ted Cruz thinks he can take the state away from Donald by visiting the region FOUR times this week.
Ted will visit Columbia Mo, which staddles Districts 3 and 4 where Trump is VERY strong.
He is visiting District 2 (St. Louis suburbs) where Trump is also very strong.
And he will twice visit the suburbs of St. Louis on the Illinois side. Donald is very strong there too.
Hopefully Mr Trump realizes he can expand his beautiful solid block of red states, and keep Ted's yellow states from connecting, if he also keeps his eye on Missouri.
Donald needs to paint Missouri RED to eventually connect sea-to-shining-sea.